Chelsea regained some confidence and momentum with thumping wins over West Bromwich Albion and Hull City. The previous run of games, though, showed how predictable the Blues have become and how important some novelty will be against Barcelona.
In Chelsea’s most recent losses, Bournemouth and Watford showed how even mid-table teams could triumph over the defending champions. The Blues’ predictability allowed these clubs to use Antonio Conte’s playbook against them. Bournemouth and Watford employed the same simple, three-pronged approach: Press high, attack the space behind the wing-backs and play a resolute defensive line at the top of the box.
If clubs from up and down the Premier League have the measure of Chelsea so effectively, surely Barcelona will, too. If Chelsea revert to type on Tuesday, they will make Barcelona look like, well, Barcelona.
The Blues have been showing signs of an impending switch in formation and tactics over the last month. The outside centre-backs – particularly Cesar Azpilicueta – have been pushing increasingly high up the pitch in transition and attack. They are beginning to play more as full-backs than centre-backs.
The Hull City game was an outlier for many reasons, so there is only so much you can extrapolate to a Premier League or Champions League opponent. Against the Tigers, even Gary Cahill played closer to the midfield line than his usual defensive posture. The Blues only needed Ethan Ampadu as a sweeper to mind the back of the store, allowing Antonio Rudiger and Cahill to push forward.
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But those movements would not have happened by accident, and they certainly would not have continued if Antonio Conte did not like what he saw. The players took advantage of Hull’s deep defensive and low possession to take what they are learning at Cobham to its extreme state.
Up front, Olivier Giroud has shown why he may be a more traditional Chelsea-style striker than Alvaro Morata. Rather than present Antonio Conte with an either-or situation, these two complement each other in a way Stamford Bridge has never seen before.
Conte’s two favourite offensive formations before Chelsea were the 3-5-2 and the 4-2-4. He has only used the 3-5-2 with one true striker – Morata – and Eden Hazard as a shadow striker. Conte never tried Michy Batshuayi alongside Morata, so Chelsea never experienced a true two-striker formation. This was due to not having the appropriate midfield foundation as much as the Conte – Batshuayi situation. While Chelsea still are searching for stability in midfield, Conte inarguably has the two strikers he needs and can trust.
Victor Moses has been tending towards his original position as a winger, as well. With Azpilicueta pushing high as a full-back would, the wing-back can move into a more traditional winger role. The right-side pair take turns on the overlap to pull the pitch as wide as possible, but Moses will finish the play by taking the ball into the box from the touchline.
Likewise, against Hull City, Davide Zappacosta and Emerson spent much of the day within a few yards of the touchline. They forced Hull to defend the full width of the field, which created the seams for Giroud, Willian, Pedro and Cesc Fabregas.
These situations combine to suggest a move to a 4-2-4 or similar formation. The defenders are acting more like full-backs, which helps take away the easily exploitable space behind the wing-backs. The wing-backs, in turn, are playing more like wide wingers. This helps push the play around and behind a high defensive line, opening several avenues of attack from the top of the box.
Chelsea’s Champions League clash with Barcelona is the perfect moment to put all the pieces together into a new, coherent and unpredictable whole. Antonio Conte can undercut everything Barcelona have trained for by giving them an opponent no one has yet seen this season. Barcelona would have noticed all these isolated changes over the preceding weeks, and will have identified ways to neutralize and counter them.
However, they have not seen Antonio Conte’s end game. No one has. If he debuts a new tactical system based on the tweaks and nuances of the past month, he will have an immediate advantage over Barcelona, who stay happily married to their 4-4-2 diamond. The new system will be greater than the sum of its parts, let alone any new innovations he has not revealed outside of Cobham.
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Chelsea have a wonderful track record of surprising the football world with their success over Barcelona. If they surprise Barcelona with a new look and a new style on Tuesday, they will write another chapter of the tale of Blues over blaugrana.