With 28 matches played, Chelsea currently sit two points behind fourth. Matchday 29 will reveal how much hope Chelsea should have to get top four.
Losing to Manchester United hurt Chelsea but has not completely crippled them. With Manchester City following, belief is noticeably lacking. But the Manchester City result is only part of the equation. Even with a loss, Chelsea can pass by next week with a good shot of top four. It largely depends on the results of matchday 29. After that day, Chelsea’s chances will become clearer.
The battle for top four is essentially four teams fighting over three spots. Arsenal, even with their new signings, simply do no look capable of closing the gap. Best case scenario for the Gunners is they enter matchday 29 five points behind fifth and seven behind fourth. Worst case scenario is they end matchday 29 11 points off fifth and 13 off fourth. Regardless, they will need to massively out perform two teams above them and that just does not seem possible for them.
Mauricio Pochettion’s Spurs host Huddersfield next weekend. That will favor them, but they also have an FA Cup replay before that and Huddersfield are not a team to take lightly. Add in that Spurs have been grinding out results lately and three points is by no means a guarantee.
Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool have been in fine form and host Newcastle. Liverpool upsets come out of nowhere and Newcastle are a team perfectly capable of pulling it off at Anfield. Whether they will or not is an entirely different question.
Jose Mourinho’s Manchester United are the safest in the top four battle for now. They travel away to Crystal Palace who desperately need the points but are injury ravaged. United have not impressed in recent weeks even with the win against Chelsea. Palace could sneak away with a point or more if everything goes there way.
And that leaves Chelsea facing off against the soon to be crowned champions. Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City host a week after crushing Arsenal in the League Cup final. Funnily, Arsenal host Manchester City midweek. Pep Guardiola has not rotated heavily this season and the quick turnaround between Arsenal and Chelsea could give the Blues the edge they need. A loss would not bother City very much; they are basically on auto pilot until their title is mathematically confirmed.
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It is entirely possible that Chelsea sneak away from the Etihad with all three points. It is also more likely than not that their rivals for top four all win as well. The best case scenario for Chelsea is their rivals somehow all trip over themselves as Chelsea win and take by fourth place. Even if only Spurs slip as Chelsea succeed, the Blues will return to fourth.
The worse case scenario, unfortunately, is the most likely. United, Liverpool and Spurs all win as Manchester City defeat Chelsea. This would put Antonio Conte’s men behind the eight ball. They would be nine points off second, seven points off third and five points off fourth.
In that scenario, the small sliver of hope that will remain is that Chelsea still host Spurs and Liverpool later in the season. Even if Chelsea wins both, the two rivals would still have to drop more points than Chelsea before the end of the season for the Blues to pull through.
So the chance for top four is alive, but it is in critical condition. A loss to Manchester City while the rivals all gain points will put it on life support. The margin for error will have become zero.
No top four would spell the end for Antonio Conte. It would also see star players depart for greener, Champions League playing pastures. And it would make signing players much more difficult without the allure of European nights (even if the club still qualifies for the Europa League).
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Antonio Conte must use the next week to get his players in the right mindset. They can control their fate but must make no more mistakes. That will be their best chance to make top four.