Manchester City have lost three times this season. Chelsea must learn from those losses to achieve the perfect balance against the soon-to-be champions.
There are two ways to beat Manchester City. The first is to beat them at their own game. Pep Guardiola’s teams have struggled against teams that control the space and press aggressively.
The second way is to choke out their attack and pray for a good counter. This has been the go-to method for the vast majority of squads facing a Guardiola team. He even changed his tactics to counter this trend by having his attacks end with the wingers as opposed to the striker as before.
But whichever way a team chooses to play against Guardiola’s teams, the key is finding the right balance. It is not enough to only attack like madmen or defend every blade of grass. For a team to beat Guardiola’s system, they must find the right balance between the two and pick the right moments to push and pull. Any small mistake gives Guardiola’s teams the space they need to pounce and punish.
So as Antonio Conte prepared for the match, he should be viewing the three teams that beat Manchester City this season: Shakhtar Donetsk, Liverpool and Wigan Athletic.
Shakhtar were likely the closest to achieving a balance. They defended a lot, as is expected, but they did not refuse to attack either. They actually out shot Manchester City to win 2-1.
The main caveat, however, is that Shakhtar needed a point while Manchester City were already guaranteed top spot in the Champions League group. Because of this, Guardiola fielded a much weaker defense and midfield than usual. That puts a big asterisk on the result despite how admirable it was.
Their next loss came against Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool. Few managers have as much experience against Guardiola. And, because Klopp is dogmatic in his style and principles, he did not change his team’s style. Liverpool pressed in mass and attacked with numbers every time they had the ball. It was full throttle and exciting and worked well enough to win the match.
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But this result also has an asterisk when it comes to Chelsea. Antonio Conte will not have his team extend themselves in a press or attack like that. Conte constantly speaks about balance and playing against Manchester City the way Liverpool did would upset that balance. Liverpool won, yes, but they barely did so in a wild 4-3. That will not be possible with the current Chelsea squad.
City’s most recent result ended their dreams of a quadruple. Wigan of League One upset the Premier League leaders with a scrappy 1-0 victory. They put everyone behind the ball and defended in mass. Wigan had just four shots to City’s 29, but the only shot that mattered was the one that put Wigan ahead.
This is how the vast majority of teams play against a Guardiola side. Sit back, defend well and take the chance when it comes. Chelsea did so as well when they knocked Barcelona out of the Champions League in 2012. It is the most used because it is the easiest, but it is also the one Guardiola plans the most for. Defending in mass may work occasionally, but it by no means guarantees a thing.
So what can Conte learn from these three losses? Only what his has been saying his entire Chelsea career: find balance. Chelsea can look at their own recent matches to draw a plan as well.
Against Barcelona, Chelsea defended well but did not sit back and merely hope to weather the storm. When they attacked, they attacked with purpose. But they were sure to be in position to defend again if the ball was lost.
That is how Chelsea nearly beat Barcelona and it is how they will have a chance against Manchester City. The game plan should be the same as if not similar to the one used against the Spanish side.
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Treading the fine line between attack and defense is the only way Chelsea will have a chance. They must pick the right moments and the right decisions to scurry out of Manchester with three points.
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