Harry Kane’s absence gives Chelsea an advantage, but no guarantee
By George Perry
Sitting five points behind Tottenham for fourth place, Chelsea need every advantage they can grab when the two sides meet on Sunday. If the football gods want to bestow the dark arts in Chelsea’s favour, the Blues have to exploit the opportunity and not worry about excuses, asterisks or “yes, but’s” after the game.
Tottenham come to Stamford Bridge without Harry Kane in the lineup. Of the Premier League’s 10 leading scorers, Kane accounts for the largest percentage of his team’s offence. Kane’s 24 goals – second to Mohamed Salah – are 41% of Tottenham’s output this season.
This does not put Chelsea’s defence on the beach for Sunday’s game, though. Tottenham’s second-highest scorer Son Heung-Min has 12 goals, one more than Chelsea’s leading scorer, Eden Hazard. Son will likely replace Kane at the top of Mauricio Pochettino’s 4-2-3-1. Son and Kane have nearly identical proportions of goals off of each foot and the head, meaning Chelsea cannot plan on simply closing down one shooting lane.
Beyond Kane’s and Son’s prolific scoring, though, Tottenham are offensively shallow. Only nine Spurs – including Kane and Son – have scored this season in the Premier League. That leaves five outfield players with over 1000 minutes and no goals.
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Chelsea, on the other hand, have had 15 goal-scorers. Only Gary Cahill and Andreas Christensen have played over 1000 minutes without scoring (and Thibaut Courtois, obviously).
Even so, the biggest threats to Chelsea will come from Dele Alli and Christian Eriksen. Alli has scored three of the last four Tottenham goals against the Blues (not counting Michy Batshuayi’s own goal). Eriksen assisted on all four of those goals (and the own goal, technically speaking). Two of the Eriksen-Alli goals were nearly identical in the January 2016 fixture that ended Chelsea’s 13-game winning streak.
In the previous game in November 2016, Eriksen scored with an assist from Alli. You have to go back to New Year’s Day 2015 to find a game between these two clubs where Tottenham scored but Christian Eriksen was not involved in any of the goals. In that game, a 5-3 Tottenham win, Harry Kane scored or created four of the Spurs’ goals.
The Blues’ midfielders must stay close to Eriksen as he moves from the middle-third into Chelsea’s defensive third. They cannot allow him enough time or space to find and deliver a pass into the box to Alli or Son. Unfortunately for Chelsea, Eriksen does not need as much time or space as their playmakers, Cesc Fabregas and Cesar Azpilicueta. Tiemoue Bakayoko will need to be alert, quick and alive to Eriksen’s presence and threat.
The centre-backs must do their part by taking away the open lanes for Alli to run onto Eriksen’s passes. Last year Eriksen and Alli tore open the back-line in the air. Andreas Christensen and Antonio Rudiger can provide better coverage than David Luiz and Gary Cahill did last year. But neither can afford any mistakes. Christensen hopefully recovered from his fatigue and any disappointment or frustrations from his late February / early March run of isolated but costly errors. Tottenham will not convert those opportunities as clinically as Manchester City and Barcelona. But the Spurs will target the young Dane with a Dane of their own until they break through.
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Chelsea cannot afford any complacency or errors in this six-point game for next season’s Champions League. Harry Kane’s absence gives them an advantage but not a guarantee.