Eden Hazard’s blunted impact on games is costing Chelsea key goals

Eden Hazard has had a minimal impact in Chelsea’s most important games this season, particularly those over the last two months in the Premier League and Champions League. His scoring patterns this season reflect those of his earliest days at the club and the dark season of 2015/16.

“Where is Eden Hazard?” This question has defined many of Chelsea’s games in 2018, particularly the crucial tilts against Barcelona, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham. For every time somebody asks that question, some wag tweets “time to bring on Eden Hazard as an impact sub” in the 70′ minute as he drifts anonymously through another game.

For all the talk of a transfer to Real Madrid as he enters his peak playing years, Hazard’s progression is at a bit of a stand-still. That creates a difficult paradox for both clubs involved and the player. He may need a change of league, football culture and competition to spur the next stage of his development (he has already had enough coaching changes at Chelsea). But clubs may be unwilling to sign him without demonstrable progress. No one will pay what Chelsea will demand if a 27-year old player appears to be sitting on a plateau.

Hazard is having a completely average goal-scoring season by his standards. With seven Premier League games remaining he has 11 league goals and 15 in all competitions. He averages 11.4 and 14.4, respectively, in his time at Chelsea. Hazard is similarly average in terms of goal creation, that is, goals plus assists. He has created 26 goals in all competitions and 14 in the Premier League, after averaging 26.8 and 17.8 since 2012/13.

But Hazard is not only not scoring more goals. His goals are having less of an impact on the club’s fortune. 27% of Hazard’s Premier League goals are game-winners. This is in the range of his first two seasons in the club and the calamitous 2015/16 season. By contrast, in his Premier League title-winning seasons, 44% (2016/17) and 50% (2014/15) of Hazard’s goals sealed a victory.

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The percentage of game-winning goals is the quant version of the common criticism: “Hazard does not take the game by the scruff of the neck.” Players of Hazard’s potential and putative caliber not only score many goals, but they score important goals. They take command of the proceedings not just in possession and trickery, but in the result. When their teammates cannot produce, they do. Consistently, regularly.

This is what makes Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo who they are, and what has filled their trophy cases with Ballon d’Or statues. And it is why Eden Hazard is increasingly off their level.

Even in the microcosm of Chelsea FC, he is not filling the boots of the ultimate clutch player, Didier Drogba. Drogba was a prolific scorer, but more than that, he scored the big goals. He scored 10 goals in 10 finals, and many other key goals along the way.

Hazard, on the other hand, has scored only one goal against a top half side: a penalty against Arsenal. Four of his 11 league goals came in the two games against West Bromwich Albion, ranked 16th and 20th at the time. Only his two goals against AS Roma were clutch goals in a big game: the first for 2-0, and the second to claim the draw at 3-3.

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Chelsea’s fortunes are uniquely tied to Eden Hazard. This is a difficult burden for a player to carry. But it is part of being a Ballon d’Or winner, as Hazard hopes to be, and it is a shadow of the everyday pressure players experience at Real Madrid. His response to this downturn, as much as the downturn itself, will shape Chelsea’s and Real’s impressions of him this summer and in future windows.