Chelsea: Conte turning to substitutes for many more minutes than 2016/17

Olivier Giroud’s 81st-minute introduction against Tottenham was the latest Antonio Conte has made his first substitution in a Premier League game this season. Overall, Chelsea’s substitutes are playing eight minutes more per game than they did last season.

Football fans have more than a little bit in common with Goldilocks. “Antonio Conte is waiting too long to make his subs!” “You can’t make a sub that early if he’s on-form!” “Why does Conte persist with keeping poor players on for the full game?” “Never withdraw Eden Hazard!”… All in the course of 10 minutes. When do the bears come home?

Last season, Conte’s defining substitution was Michy Batshuayi’s stoppage time run-out. In Chelsea’s 2016/17 Premier League season, Conte made 24 substitutions after the 85′. This season, he has made only nine.

The average substitute appearance in 2016/17 last 11.5 minutes. The first sub would come on in the 70′, followed by the second sub 10 minutes later and the final sub five minutes after that. This season, all three substitutions happen earlier. The second sub has shifted most dramatically, coming on in the 72′ on average, only five minutes after the first sub and eight minutes earlier than the 2016/17 counterpart.

Unlike last season, Chelsea have been forced to make many first-half substitutions. Last season, the only first-half substitution was the John Terry clap-off in the 26′ against Sunderland in the season finale. Already in 2017/18, Conte has had to make six first half substitutions. Two were to adjust after a red card: Gary Cahill’s against Burnley and Tiemoue Bakayoko’s against Watford. The remaining four were for injury.

These very early, unplanned substitutions skew the data for the first sub. But even after removing them from the analysis, Chelsea are sending their first sub onto the pitch an average of four minutes earlier than last season.

Like any struggling coach – or any Chelsea coach under pretty much any circumstances (we are a fickle bunch, aren’t we) – Antonio Conte takes criticism from all directions on all subjects, regardless of results. Conte is routinely slated for not playing Chelsea’s youth, yet he has given more minutes to more young players than any manager since Carlo Ancelotti. Critics launch invective that he is too rigid in his personnel and formations, yet he has used more players in more combinations to form more lineups in his second year than his first. And within the individual games, with the exception of the soul-crushing defeat to Tottenham, he is making longer use of his substitutes this year than he did last season.

The data demonstrates Antonio Conte’s flexibility and adaptability. For as much as he complains in the press about not having the right players and the right depth, he does not passively complain. He actively works with what he has in search of solutions. Youth, lineup shuffles, subtle formation changes, expanded use of substitutes – he is doing what he can.

And what he is doing is very often what Chelsea fans claim they want a manager to do. Football is obviously a results-driven business, particularly at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea’s below-standards season is masking the intelligent, valuable and professional work Conte is doing. Individual mistakes have cost Chelsea several recent games. Those moments have the sort of direct and immediate effect that can undo and outweigh any tactic. Chelsea have not been sufficiently clinical in front of goal, which is often down to the players independent of the manager and his system.

With a lesser manager – and most managers out there are less than him – Chelsea may not even have the Europa League as a consolation.

Next: Matej Delac leaves Chelsea after 7.5 years and no appearances

Antonio Conte is doing all the right things to build a long-term foundation for Chelsea FC. Whether the wisdom of the board is any better than the wisdom of the crowd will determine much more than who is in the technical area for the next few seasons.

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