Chelsea must demoralize Southampton in the league to prepare for FA Cup
By George Perry
Chelsea face Southampton on Saturday for the first of two meetings in eight days. The Blues must use the Premier League fixture to sap Southampton of any hope, confidence or ambition they could take into the FA Cup semi-final.
Neither Chelsea nor Southampton thought they would be in this position come matchweek 33. The Blues are fighting to hang on to the Europa League qualification spot in fifth place, while Southampton are fighting for their survival as a Premier League club. For both sides, the FA Cup may be the one last chance to snatch a bright spot from the 2017/18 season.
As it happens, only one of the two clubs can make it to the FA Cup finals. Chelsea must use this weekend’s Premier League game to deflate Southampton’s thoughts of Wembley.
On paper this should be an easy match-up. Chelsea have 29 more points and 23 more goals than the Saints. They won the reverse fixture 1-0, and have defeated Mark Hughes (at Stoke) by a combined 9-0. Then again, this Chelsea side shipped four points to David Moyes’ West Ham and lost to Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Watford when all were in the bottom half (in addition to a raft of top-half teams).
Chelsea must view Saturday’s fixture as the first half of the FA Cup semi-final. They must take Southampton out of the game early with purposeful possession, high pressing and an ambition to take an early multi-goal lead. They have to keep Southampton reeling for the full 90 minutes at St. Mary’s Stadium, with no hope of a comeback or even comfort. Southampton must leave the game with no hope of revenge or parity the following Sunday in the FA Cup.
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The Blues have psychological and tactical reasons for this approach. Chelsea have been tentative as a club and fragile as individuals for much of the season. In their recent games against top clubs they played with a “defence only,” rather than a “defence first,” mentality. Against weaker sides like West Ham, they lacked the finishing instinct and clinicality in front of goal. The Blues can scarcely afford a repeat of West Ham where they had complete dominance of possession and passing in the opposition’s penalty area but only game out with a single goal.
Individual players have cost Chelsea far more than their tactical set-ups. Whether it is the split-second mistakes on defence that cost Chelsea against Barcelona and the Manchester clubs, or the mental crumbling of Tiemoue Bakayoko against Watford, the Blues lack resilience and reserve under the slightest pressure.
These upcoming two games will be the third and fourth times Chelsea have faced Mark Hughes this season. Over his managerial career, they will be the 31st and 32nd games Hughes has managed against his former club, with Southampton being his sixth team. Chelsea have won 21 of the 29 meetings, averaging just over three goals per game. Even so, Chelsea cannot be complacent mentally or tactically. They cannot allow Hughes to figure out a way to overcome Chelsea, particularly in their unusually weak condition at this point in the season.
Chelsea have been both vulnerable and predictable throughout the season. Losing to Pep Guardiola and Jose Mourinho are one thing. Losing to David Moyes and Roy Hodgson are quite another. No great sophistication has been required to defend against Chelsea’s monotonous passing, nor how to interrupt Chelsea’s play out from the back. Antonio Conte does not want to add “lost to Moyes, Hodgson and Hughes in one season” to the growing list of epithets that will mark 2017/18.
Southampton have a more direct, urgent motivation to win Saturday’s game. Chelsea need to shut them down for the three points, the minimal level of respect that comes with defeating a relegation-zone side and to set the stage for the FA Cup semi-final.
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The Blues may have little to play for, but they still must be prepared to give it all for what they have left. The FA Cup semi-final goes through Southampton the city as well as Southampton the club.