Antonio Conte celebrated his 100th game in charge of Chelsea by finally playing two proper strikers together in a 3-5-2. Now he needs to try the striker pair with Eden Hazard or Willian as the third forward.
Diego Costa and Michy Batshuayi? Nope. Michy Batshuayi and Alvaro Morata? Nope. Alvaro Morata and Olivier Giroud? Yes, eventually.
Antonio Conte finally delivered on the promise he brought from Juventus to Chelsea and played a 3-5-2 (more precisely a 3-4-1-2) with two actual strikers. He denied earlier iterations of strikers the chance to play together, instead persisting with the 3-4-3 or using Eden Hazard as a shadow striker. Morata and Giroud delivered on the promise, even if neither were on the scoresheet against Burnley. Had Conte played Hazard or Willian instead of Pedro, the game could have been much different.
Conte’s decision to play Pedro likely had more to do with Sunday’s FA Cup semi-final than his assessment of who would be best in that role. Willian and Hazard will probably start on Sunday in a 3-4-3, so Conte wanted to rest them for the more important game. Pedro was less effective than the other two wingers would have been, particularly against an opponent like Burnley.
The decision to play two strikers was a recognition of Burnley’s disciplined and compact defence. Chelsea have struggled to penetrate defensive lines at the top of the box or create passing lanes within the box against tight defences. Giroud and Morata gave the Blues two large targets to bring the ball down in the box, instead of wingers trying to dance the ball through.
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Pedro covered the width of the pitch with his runs off the ball, showing up to support the wing-backs and midfielders on either side. He orbited the striker pair, but did not support them in any creative ways. He is not threatening enough to draw a defence out of position, and Burnley knew it. The Clarets let Pedro run with or without the ball, confidently holding their shape and not opening up any space. As a result, Giroud and Morata were always within arm’s reach of their markers – a situation they could handle (Giroud, especially), but one that limited their opportunities to poach and power shots from close range.
Burnley did not know how to respond to Eden Hazard’s introduction in the 71′. Hazard was at full force for his 20 minutes. He would pick up the ball on one side of the pitch, drive towards the box, dribble around the perimeter and sometimes still have the ball on the other side. Other times he would line up a shot, pass or one-two from the top of the box. Burnley did not know if they should come out and challenge him – and risk him blowing past the defender – or maintain their shape, inviting him to shoot and possibly draw a foul in the process.
Hazard did what Pedro – and many Premier League teams – could not do: he deformed Burnley’s defence. He created more space and time for Giroud by pulling defenders towards himself and out of their assigned positions. Once he stretches the defence, the strikers have more space and options. Now Hazard has the option of pushing the ball into the box for a one-two as the striker comes towards him; driving into the box behind his defenders to shoot, while two strikers await the rebound; or passing the ball to a wing-back or midfielder to send it back in towards the strikers in a bit more space.
Willian can have a similar effect as Hazard. A defence cannot allow Willian to take possession at the top of the box unopposed. He needs no more than a touch to find a shooting lane, low to one corner or curving in the air to another. But by coming out to meet him, they create consequences Chelsea can exploit while giving up their defensive structure, which is Burnley’s greatest strength.
For 70 minutes against Burnley, Olivier Giroud and Alvaro Morata showed what they can do together. For the final 20, Eden Hazard showed what he can do as a matter of course. Antonio Conte needs to take the next step in this long-awaited process and play Hazard or Willian with the striker pair in a 3-5-2 / 3-4-1-2.
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He is unlikely to do so on Sunday, as he will go with his most trusted XI in the most trusted formation. The following week Chelsea face Swansea, who have the ninth-best defence despite being in 17th place. The Blues have a full week on either side of Swansea, making it a good opportunity to continue testing and refining this overdue formation.