No, Chelsea are not back in the top four battle (yet)
By Travis Tyler
One of the media’s jobs is to create a narrative when there is none. The current one is on Chelsea being back in the top four battle. They are not (yet).
Since losing to Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea have effectively been on the outside of the race for top four looking in. The only real chance the Blues had at pulling themselves back into it was by winning every remaining game. They drew the very next match to West Ham United.
But then Spurs lost to Manchester City (which was always expected). And then they drew to Brighton. The other team Chelsea could potentially catch, Liverpool, drew their rival Everton and gave up a two goal lead to West Bromwich Albion.
Suddenly, commentators have started to talk about “Chelsea being back in the top four race”. That is, of course, untrue. Chelsea are closer than they were, are still mathematically capable, but have little control over their fate. The Blues are not “back in it”. Yet.
As things currently stand, Chelsea sit five points behind Spurs with the same amount of games. Unless Chelsea really starting raining goals, they will not pull ahead via goal difference. So realistically, Chelsea would need six points to pull past Spurs.
That is possible though unlikely. Spurs have Watford at home, West Brom away, Newcastle United at home and Leicester City at home. They would need to lose at least two of those fixtures or draw three of them. Meanwhile, Chelsea would have to win every remaining match.
Liverpool have played one more match than Chelsea. They sit eight points ahead of Chelsea. Again, the Blues have little hope of catching up via goal difference. So Chelsea would need to make up nine points.
That is virtually impossible. First of all, Chelsea would have to beat Liverpool. There is no question about that. But then Liverpool would also have to lose against Stoke City and Brighton (both at home). Again, Chelsea would have to win out. So, in short, Liverpool only need one point to end Chelsea’s chances of pulling ahead. Even if they shift their entire focus towards the Champions League, they are bound to limp their way into at least a point.
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So no, Chelsea are not back in the top four race despite commentators and journalists attempting to make it so. Liverpool are basically out of reach. The Blues could, mathematically, catch Spurs. That would require Chelsea taking all 12 of the points remaining for them. It would also require Spurs taking no more than six more points out of their available 12.
The small hope that Chelsea can hold on to is that, in recent seasons, Spurs have struggled mightily as soon as they had nothing to play for. The draw to Brighton could potentially be due to the title being wrapped up by Manchester City. They still have the FA Cup to play for, but if they lose their mentality could be completely shot.
And Spurs’ remaining fixtures are easy on paper but are not necessarily so. West Brom have been slugging big clubs since Alan Pardew was sacked. Newcastle have been in fine form to close out the season. And there is always the possibility that Leicester dig in and pull off a result.
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But none of that will matter unless Chelsea win every remaining match. That is the only way that the Blues could potentially be back in the fight for top four. It will be a long shot, and one out of Chelsea’s control, but the Blues can at least keep the dream alive for a few match days longer.