Chelsea: Conte should reprise his tactics from City, Barca against Liverpool

LONDON, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 12: Cesar Azpilicueta of Chelsea in action during the Premier League match between Chelsea and West Bromwich Albion at Stamford Bridge on February 12, 2018 in London, England. (Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 12: Cesar Azpilicueta of Chelsea in action during the Premier League match between Chelsea and West Bromwich Albion at Stamford Bridge on February 12, 2018 in London, England. (Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images) /
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AS Roma reduced the space between their lines in the second leg of the Champions League semi-final, warding off another Liverpool goal-fest. Chelsea will likely do the same, imitating their approach to the Manchester City and Barcelona games.

Antonio Conte is going to make a lot of people unhappy on Sunday. He’s going to play negative, unattractive, anti-Eden Hazard, boring, if we wanted this we’d be Middlesbrough fans, sack-worthy, disgraceful, park the bus and burn it, unsexy, judicially actionable see you in the Hague no really this is a crime against humanity, but in all seriousness a British police department may tweet about it football. And Chelsea just might nick a win off Liverpool in the process, but don’t let that distract you.

AS Roma gave a masterful display of how to concede five goals to Liverpool in the first leg of the Champions League semi-final. In the second leg, they minimized the damage enough to win on the day. The main difference between the two ties was the spacing and placement of Roma’s defence and midfield lines.

At Liverpool they played a high line with a forward midfield. This created two large spaces where Liverpool only needs one to inflict fatal damage. For the second leg the defence played slightly deeper and the midfield played much closer. This limited Roma’s offensive opportunities, but it also limited Liverpool’s. In nearly any game, Liverpool’s offence determines the outcome – if the opponent does not shut them down, they win. By taking away the space for them to accelerate into the attack and then run through at pace, Roma gave themselves a chance to win.

Antonio Conte’s tactics against Manchester City and Barcelona this spring were consistent with his approach against Arsenal, Tottenham and City in the first half of the season. He kept the defence deep and the lines tight, even the forwards. Chelsea denied those opponents room to slice through the midfield and opportunities to get behind the defence. By narrowing the range of play, the ball was always within N’Golo Kante’s kill-zone. The tactics worked brilliantly. But individual errors turned the result.

Conte effectively confirmed this plan in Friday’s press conference. He knows that Liverpool’s forwards are not only effective on the attack but ruthless in punishing mistakes. Chelsea must deny Liverpool both sets of opportunities: faulty tactics and fatal errors.

"For sure we must pay great attention, especially to their first game against Roma. This showed if you give them a lot space behind the defensive line, they are very dangerous. They have three exceptional players who are very good at attacking the space. We must be very compact and prepare the game in the right way. – Chelsea FC"

Liverpool are much more dangerous on the break than they are in sustained possession. Chelsea are much better defending against sustained possession than the break, where their lack of defensive speed (Antonio Rudiger notwithstanding) is a major liability. This balance makes Conte’s choice unassailable: match Chelsea’s defensive strengths against Liverpool’s offensive weakness, avoid exposing Chelsea’s defensive vulnerabilities to Liverpool’s strength.

At the other end, Liverpool’s defence is vulnerable on both the counter and a longer build-up. Liverpool will want to draw Chelsea out to stretch their lines and create space for Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane. But the more they invite possession, the greater the opportunity for Eden Hazard to have a go at Dejan Lovren. Neither manager will be particularly comfortable with Chelsea settling in with nine men in the Liverpool half.

Antonio Conte’s defence-first approach will give Chelsea the best chance to win in a lose-lose situation. If the Blues take a 1-0 victory, he will be begrudgingly praised for a boring win. If the Blues lose 1-0, he will take the blame for not trying to win. And if he plays expansively and loses 6-2, everyone who wanted entertaining football against Manchester City and Barcelona will say he did not care enough to learn any lessons from AS Roma.

Next: Predicted XI for Liverpool: Alvaro Morata starts in a compact 3-5-2

The earlier games against top teams and his comments at the press conference point the way towards Chelsea’s tactics against Liverpool. His players must be prepared to suffer with and without the ball. We must be prepared to suffer for all the takes sure to come.