Chelsea should follow the 30/30 rule and pass on Robert Lewandowski

Robert Lewandowski is back in Chelsea’s rumour mill, with the transfer fee ranging from club record to world record. Among many other reasons, Chelsea should take a pass on him if Bayern Munich do not bring terms in line with the 30/30 rule.

Chelsea’s summer transfer mill is going to be more high-profile and more high-value than usual. The Blues will be spending towards a Premier League challenge, the need to at least qualify for the following season’s Champions League, potentially satisfying a new manager and the desire to prove a point to Eden Hazard. Heaven help us if Lionel Messi likes anything on Instagram.

Robert Lewandowski is exactly the type of proven, Champions League-regular (if not a winner) megastar for a window like this. But the Lewandowski rumours fail a simple test of age-vs-value: the 30/30 rule. Chelsea should never pay more than £30 million for a player 30 years or older.

Chelsea do not look far over the horizon once a player turns 30. They famously offer all players over 30 a series of one-year contracts, even if his name is John Terry. This means Chelsea will have very few years – often with a shrinking number of games per year – to recoup their transfer fee on older players. Transfer fees resemble lease agreements at age 30 – high costs up front, little equity on the back. Buying a player at that age almost guarantees the club will sell them at a loss – something anathema at Stamford Bridge, even for low-profile players with smaller fees.

Robert Lewandowski will turn 30 within the first few weeks of the 2018/19 season. Whatever contract he would sign at Chelsea will include a countdown clock. The Blues could sign him to a two-year deal, with nothing more than conditional clauses to dangle a hope of something beyond that term.

Beyond the finances, even if Chelsea paid under £30 million his presence would still exert a severe cost on the club. Chelsea would likely need to sell Alvaro Morata to afford Lewandowski and the rest of the summer transfers, and to make room for him.

This would be an unconscionable surrender on Morata. Antonio Rudiger and Tiemoue Bakayoko are the latest embodiments of how even high-calibre players need a full season to regain their form in the Premier League. That pair had few performances of note over the first three-quarters of the season. Then, in the final weeks, they shared man of the match honours in two of Chelsea’s most important wins: against Liverpool in the league and Manchester United in the FA Cup final.

Alvaro Morata started his season far better than Rudiger or Bakayoko. Morata’s form tapered off, and he struggled with injury through the winter. He started returning to form late on, even if he did not recapture his goal output from the early weeks. There is absolutely nothing to suggest he is a lost case for next season, not even his exclusion from Spain’s World Cup team. The only arguments against him are ad hominems and the spectres of Andriy Shevchenko and Fernando Torres.

If, on the other hand, Chelsea kept Morata and bought Lewandowski, the adverse consequences simply pass down the depth chart. Morata, Lewandowski and Giroud would demand to be the striker unit. They would foreclose any real opportunities for Michy Batshuayi and Tammy Abraham. Batshuayi and Abraham are ready for their break-through seasons at Chelsea: 25-30 games for Abraham, and over 30 for Batshuayi. Neither would come close to that with three experienced, expensive strikers above them.

Buying Lewandowski would be a transparent gesture towards Chelsea’s ambitions. If the Blues pay close to a club record for a 30-year old striker, they are making a mercenary purchase. They would be “buying their success,” as they have been accused of doing so many times. He would not be a player the club could build around for the future – particularly on a series of one-year contracts. He would not be the defining focal point for the next iteration of Chelsea FC. To whatever extent he provided talismanic and inspirational value, he would be redundant with Olivier Giroud. And he would reinforce the notion that Chelsea values expedience over development, the now over the future.

Chelsea need to build a team. They do not need to buy star players and say “See, we’re doing something!” They can prove their ambitions to the team, the fans and the league by finding younger players with Champions League experience and abilities, and moulding them into proper Blues.

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If the Blues can buy Lewandowski for under £30 million while keeping Alvaro Morata and not stonewalling Michy Batshuayi and Tammy Abraham, well, they have way more savvy than anyone has ever given them credit for. Maybe the incoming technical director will be able to pull this off .