Chelsea on the clock to sell trio before transfer values drop any further

Chelsea are on the clock to sell three players who are now of limited value to the team and, in two cases, have no right to be at Stamford Bridge. If the Blues cannot move David Luiz, Willian and Pedro this summer, they will be lucky to take anything less than a total loss.

Chelsea have a well-known policy of not signing players over 30 years old to multi-year contracts. The flip side of this policy is the club’s limited income from selling players in the later stages of their career. You can debate which is the chicken and which is the egg on your own time.

Most players age 30 or older leave Chelsea on free transfers. Even strong Blues who still had plenty left to give to clubs below Chelsea’s level – Michael Essien, Joe Cole, Ashley Cole, Branislav Ivanovic, to name a few – did not bring in anything as they walked out the door. Of the few who did, Chelsea have sold only two players 30 or older for more than £10 million: Petr Cech (£14 million) and Asmir Begovic (£10 million). Goalkeepers have a much longer career arc than outfield players, so these fees are a difficult benchmark for Willian, Pedro or David Luiz.

Willian’s current deal takes him through the 2019/20 season. He could still provide Chelsea with a season’s worth of value and then leave on a consummate transfer next summer. But Willian swiped left on that option with his post-FA Cup antics. Chelsea must forego whatever he could deliver on the pitch, and sell him for whatever they can this summer.

David Luiz and Pedro are both entering the final year of their contract. This summer, then, is the last chance to sell Luiz or Pedro for a respectable fee. Unless some team has a gaping, highly idiosyncratic need that only Pedro or Luiz could fill, neither will command a January transfer on par with what they could go for now. Luiz’s injuries throughout the 2017/18 season, his limited utility when healthy and his late May immaturity (yhikr, David Luiz being immature) all cut into his transfer value.

Pedro could still be a utility player for the club, provided such a role satisfied him. His game is built almost entirely on speed, though, and he is reaching the age where speed rapidly and irreversibly declines. If he converts to midfield, he could blaze a new future. As a winger, though, he would be limited to the Europa League, domestic cups and late-game substitutions. If Chelsea keep him, they will be accepting that when he leaves, it will be for free. If they have any intention of making money on him, this is the final opportunity.

These players would have been ideal for the inflated Chinese Super League transfer market of 1-3 years ago. Ramires went for £25 million and Oscar for £52 million. This current trio would array themselves comfortably between those poles.

For this summer, though, the best case scenario would be selling David Luiz and Pedro for £20 million each, and Willian for £30 million. The Blues should be prepared to accept £10-15 million for Luiz and Pedro, though. If they are unable and unwilling to sell Pedro, and he is willing to enter the one-year cycle, the Spaniard could extend his career at Stamford Bridge.

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For the other two, though, no price will be too low come the end of the transfer window. They have made clear how they value Chelsea. Chelsea have no reason to value them any higher.