Chelsea: £60MM from Man United for Willian could yield years of benefits
By George Perry
Chelsea should not let money talk them into a bad idea. But selling Willian to Manchester United for £60 million is one of the best ideas the Blues will hear this summer.
Liverpool have Southampton. Bayern Munich has the rest of the Bundesliga. Manchester United have nearly lined up Chelsea as their feeder club, except instead of promising young talent they are feeding on Jose Mourinho’s late-career favourites. But unlike the Juan Mata and Nemanja Matic sales, selling Willian to United could have a string of short-term and long-term benefits for the Blues, as long as the price is right.
United are supposedly willing to pay £60 million for Willian. This is nearly double the Brazilian’s expected market value. Several distoring factors contribute to this fee. Any transfer involving any of Manchester United, Ed Woodward or Jose Mourinho will rise above what nearly anyone else would pay. This deal involves all three.
Second, Willian is not just a player United or Mourinho want. He is one of Mourinho’s players, someone who inexplicably enjoys a positive working relationship with the Besieged One. Mourinho has been courting Willian since he arrived at Old Trafford, and Chelsea know this. This makes Willian more akin to Nemanja Matic than Juan Mata. Since Matic went for £40 million (which includes the Romelu Lukaku tax), Willian can not go for any less.
Third, United know they have to pay a premium for any player coming from a top-six rival. Any offer has to be one the seller can’t refuse. Only Chelsea seem amenable to such deals, but that does not lessen the requirement.
Chelsea will only benefit from this sale, provided United offer this price. Willian has already earned his transfer fee many times over with his goals, trophies, assists, Player of the Year award and overall service to the club (service date ending May 18, 2018). Even if Chelsea only broke even financially on the sale, Willian’s time at Stamford Bridge is an unqualified profit. The offer from United presents the opportunity to nearly double their financial investment.
Even though Willian still has 10-12 goals per season left in him, he is only a short-term solution for United. Perhaps a very short-term solution, since his outcomes at United are so dependent on Jose Mourinho.
Willian will turn 30 just before the start of the 2018/19 season. His most dangerous attributes – acceleration, speed, footwork – are now measured in half-lives. He has the technical and tactical intelligence to adapt his skills to his age and develop new ways to contribute. But who was the last post-prime player to reinvent his career under Jose Mourinho?
And then there’s the matter of Mourinho himself. He is assembling a squad of his own making at Manchester United right as he approaches the “descent into madness” stage of his tenure at a club. Willian would line up on the opposite side of the pitch from Alexis Sanchez, another potent but soon to be over 30 winger. If and when Mourinho departs under the usual circumstances, he will leave behind an aging starting XI, a disenfranchised cadre of youth (e.g., Marcus Rashford, Anthony Martial) and a style of play the Old Trafford faithful have still not taken to. That gives Chelsea several years worth of hope.
Whatever threat a Red Devil Willian would pose to Chelsea would likely only last for the upcoming season. Chelsea’s ambitions for next season are already modest. By the beginning of the 2019/20 Premier League campaign, Mourinho will either be gone, age will blunt Willian’s danger or a younger player will somehow force himself into the starting XI and Willian be a substitute.
Perhaps the best case scenario for Chelsea is if Mourinho stays and maintains his preference for Willian. Not only is this a limited threat to the Blues, but by increasing United’s dependence on an aging player they cripple themselves for the future, potentially at the expense of losing Rashford or Martial.
£60 million is double what Willian is worth on the normal market, and triple what the Blues could accept for him given the FA Cup Final incident. On finances alone, they should have no hesitation. The Blues could make a club-record purchase off this fee.
Next: Chelsea do not need another chronically injured English midfielder
For once, a club’s short-term thinking could accrue to Chelsea’s benefit. If United want to pay £60 million to tether themselves to Jose Mourinho and his retinue of aging stars, far be it from Chelsea to stand in their way.