Occam’s Razor explains Chelsea’s window better than conspiracy theories

Chelsea’s lack of activity over the first half of the transfer window is explained by some in conspiracy theories. But the simpler explanation is best.

Chelsea fans are understandably trying to make sense of the lack of activity this window. Antonio Conte was supposed to be replaced shortly after the FA Cup which is now well over a month ago. The window is half way gone and no transfers have occurred to strengthen a squad in desperate need of reinforcements.

This has bred conspiracy theories across the board. Mostly about Roman Abramovich and his interest in the club’s future in light of his visa issues. Or something about Michael Emenalo at AS Monaco. Or maybe it is just Chelsea holding all business until Maurizio Sarri is/can be announced. Maybe the Blues are waiting until preseason, which is either starting on 2 July or 9 July (conflicting reports).

But the more likely explanation is that Occam’s Razor holds true. That is the theory that the simplest explanation is usually the correct one. And the simplest explanation to the lack of activity is that the board is simply incompetent when it comes to football.

The board are not incompetent overall. They are incredibly intelligent people who are only in their current position because of their expertise. But their expertise is in business, not football. They are at the club to insure that the most money is made and saved as possible. That rarely gels with making a big splash on the market.

This has also been happening for years now so it should hardly come as a surprise. Nor should anyone believe that this window is somehow different. The board has been hunting for deals on managers and in the market since at least Jose Mourinho’s second stint. Few moves, either manager or player, can be said to have been less than frugal.

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This trend is continuing, the only difference is that the technical director spot is vacant and Abramovich is having personal issues. Emenalo could at least insure that the cheap deals were done with football and the team in mind. Without a technical director, the board defaults to what is cheap every time. Meanwhile, Abramovich’s personal issues in England has little to do with his running of the club or the delay in the new stadium when the frugal nature of the club is considered.

But that simply spins into the conspiracy theory that Abramovich is looking to save money as he tries to sell the club. Of course, that also falls apart easily like most conspiracy theories.

Chelsea are one of the world’s most valuable clubs. Abramovich is still one of the world’s richest men. If he was looking to sell, or someone was looking to buy, it would have to be someone with even more money than Abramovich. And it would be impossible to keep quiet. Too many people would be involved and the more people involved in a conspiracy, the more likely it stops being a secret.

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It is convenient to blame the lack of activity on some crazy plan. But that is simply not true and it does not match the history. This is the same board that has been doing the same things for years. The only difference is the one footballing voice at the table is gone and has not been replaced. That is not an ideal thought, but it is simply the current state of Chelsea Football Club.