Chelsea can gain the early adapter advantage by emphasizing set pieces

The 2018 World Cup is seeing a record number of goals from set pieces. Chelsea can gain an early advantage over their Premier League rivals – particularly Tottenham – by emphasizing set pieces as goal-scoring opportunities.

Like it or love it, VAR is coming to the Premier League. Among its many effects will be an increase in the number of goals scored from set pieces. For each of the last two seasons only Tottenham had more shots from set pieces than Chelsea. But neither team was near the top of goals scored from set pieces. The teams that master set pieces will have a significant jump on the rest of the league when VAR arrives full-time in England.

As the World Cup has shown, VAR is a significant deterrent to the shirt-tugging, shoving, pulling and obstructing that forms the basis of defending against free kicks. Whereas players could usually take advantage of the congestion and confusion to get away with such things in the past, VAR can punish them by turning a free kick or corner kick into a penalty kick.

VAR changes the approach on both sides of the ball. Defending teams are much more cautious and hands-off, often avoiding the gray areas altogether. As a result, the team taking the kick sees much more potential for a goal. They execute the set piece with purpose and a plan, rather than just sending the ball in.

England have the most shots and goals from set pieces in the World Cup. This almost automatically confers the advantage on Tottenham. Harry Kane, Kieran Trippier and the rest will share what they learned from Gareth Southgate with Mauricio Pochettino and the rest of the Spurs. Simply increasing their conversion rate to match 2017/18 league-leader Bournemouths’ 11% would give Tottenham six more goals in the season.

Two seasons ago, en route to the Premier League title, Chelsea converted 13.75% of their set pieces. They mustered half that in 2017/18. The difference in conversion rate manifested itself in a difference of 10 goals.

Over the last few seasons, most of Chelsea’s goals off set pieces have been shots direct to goal. Willian in 2015/16 and Marcos Alonso in the last two seasons were reliably lethal when the free kick came in their shooting range. However, Chelsea will need to build plays around all the possible situations a free kick may arise.

At the World Cup, set plays and second balls have been more important than pinpoint accuracy. Cristiano Ronaldo’s blast against Spain was exceptional in more ways than one. England and Uruguay, in particular, designed, practiced and executed their set plays with choreographic precision. Far from being trick plays or dependent on some measure of luck, they require timing, skill, guile and reading the defence. Like any other well-crafted play, they goad the opposition into a foul or a blunder. Their success in the World Cup shows what can be done, and as far as the leagues go, what will be done.

Ten goals over the course of a season should never be taken lightly. Within a few years, those 10 goals will be an even greater missed opportunity as more teams score more goals from set pieces. Eventually the league will reestablish equilibrium around the “normal” amount of goals from set pieces and open play. But until it does, the early adapters will have a real advantage.

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Tottenham will be one of those early adapters almost by default. Chelsea cannot afford to fall any further behind their London rivals. Not after last season’s home defeat, and not with the two clubs’ trajectories moving in different directions. Set pieces can be an easy source of goals and, for the next few years, an easy source of a positive goal differential.