Chelsea may have fended off a Tottenham swoop for Tammy Abraham at the end of the transfer window. Whether this happened or not, the plausibility of the rumour should make the Blues carefully consider their next move for him.
Tammy Abraham is the subject of a rumour about a transfer rumour. If these meta-rumours continue we may need to start Inception FC. But before that happens, Chelsea FC need to think about what the plausibility of transfer rumours says about the players involved. In Tammy Abraham’s case, the mere fact people believe Tottenham may have offered £25 million for him – let alone if Spurs actually did – should make them reconsider loaning him back to the Championship.
The plausibility of transfer rumours may be a more useful signal than the validity of a rumour. For starters, enough once-reliable sources soiled the bed in the last few windows that hardly anyone can be taken as a worthwhile, credible source. Most, in keeping with the theme, simply throw enough excreta against the wall, knowing some will eventually stick and they will be hailed an ITK (Hi, Alfredo!).
Plausibility, though, is a pricing mechanism tapping into the wisdom of the crowds, like betting odds. If enough people go for it, it’s not a sign that it’s going to happen, only that some critical mass think it could happen.
Marcos Alonso is a good example of this. Rumours of Real Madrid’s interest in Alonso gained enough purchase among the football media and fan base that Real stepped forward to squash the rumours. If the rumour was completely implausible – for example, Real Madrid being interested in Michael Hector – there would be no buzz, let alone a follow-on statement from a club.
Alonso’s fans and critics alike bought into the rumour. His fans pointed to it as a sign of his immense success at Chelsea. His detractors believed it out of hope that Chelsea would sell him, saying only three-time consecutive Champions League winner Real Madrid were so poor on defence as to buy him. With contortions like that they belong in Cirque du Soleil instead of our Twitter mentions.
The Tammy Abraham rumours are similarly plausible. Tottenham favour young English players, they have no one of note behind Harry Kane in the depth chart and Abraham is a rising young talent with a physical and tactical profile similar to Kane’s. Few thought the rumour was outlandish or outsized. Had Chelsea made the deal, more people would have been angry at Chelsea for arming their rival than laughing at Spurs for their typically risible business.
If Tammy Abraham is worth £25 million to a Champions League club, an ostensible Premier League title challenger, if he could be lining up alongside the better portion of England’s World Cup squad and putting himself in Gareth Southgate’s prime scouting grounds, what business do Chelsea have loaning him to Aston Villa?
If Abraham is worth that much on the transfer market, Chelsea must value and treat him accordingly. Selling a player to a top-four club and loaning him to a Championship club are not equivalent propositions. The Blues knew enough not to sell him to a major rival (why can’t they figure this out with Manchester United?), but they could still mismanage the situation by sending him on a backwards loan.
Whatever Chelsea and Tottenham think of Abraham, and whatever transpired between the clubs on deadline day, is less important now than the pricing mechanism of the rumour mill. The mass of the market believes Tammy Abraham is a Premier League- and Champions League-calibre player. Chelsea should not persist in thinking he is a Championship-calibre player.
Chelsea did the right thing by not selling Tammy Abraham to Tottenham. They must now continue to do the right thing and make good use of him this season as a Blue, or loaning him to a similarly situated club in Europe.