Chelsea’s next two domestic opponents are very similar to their last two. The Blues’ challenge is to play against Cardiff as they plan, hope and need to play against Liverpool.
Maurizio Sarri is supposed to be the coach who gives the fans what they want. Since the only thing you want more than another win is to read different takes after the game, we all better hope Sarri has used the last two weeks to push Chelsea towards a more advanced form of Sarrismo than they delivered against Newcastle and Bournemouth.
Cardiff City are a double-edged sword challenging this hope. This will be only their 43rd Premier League / First Division game in over half a century. Cardiff are offensively challenged both coming and going. They create few chances, and have a poor record in finishing them. Four teams have a lower xG than Cardiff this season, and only one (Chelsea’s subsequent Premier League opponent, West Ham) has a bigger deficit between their xG and actual G. As a result, Cardiff have two points to show for two scoreless draws and two losses – both goals came in a 3-2 defeat to Arsenal.
On the other hand, Cardiff’s run-of-play stats are very similar to the two opponents who stymied Chelsea’s superficial Sarrismo. Cardiff’s average possession of 43% falls right between that of Newcastle and Bournemouth. Only Newcastle has completed fewer passes than Cardiff this season. The distribution of time spent in each third is almost identical to Bournemouth’s. The Welsh side will stay compact, slightly higher up the pitch than Newcastle on defence, and will look to boot the ball upfield upon taking possession. Whether that boot is a clearance or a Route One outlet will depend as much on who is on the other end of it as any intention from the player who sent it.
Cardiff will allow Chelsea all the time and most of the space to pass the ball under minimal challenge and pressure. Being more of a Championship side than a Premier League side, and up against one of the top tier’s top teams, they will likely be more physical and slightly less resolute in their defensive block than Newcastle and Bournemouth. Whereas Newcastle has some speed and Bournemouth has tactical acumen, Cardiff will play traditional defend-and-pass-over-the-top English ball.
Chelsea did not have an answer for such methods in their last two games. Their prolonged possession did not translate into chance creation. They did not find through-balls to the wingers or strikers, nor did their tactics open up to allow Marcos Alonso to aim crosses at Alvaro Morata. Despite having tricky wingers and an aggressive attacking midfielder and left-back, they did not make runs behind the defensive line nor pull the defence out of shape and create space in the box.
These are all missing elements of Chelsea’s Sarrismo to date. As difficult as it can be to penetrate a compact low block, clubs desirous of the title must do just that. As it stands, bottom-half teams know how to keep the Blues at bay for 60-70 minutes. If they can muster the fitness and discipline to go the extra 20-30 minutes, Chelsea may start dropping what should be easy points.
Newcastle and Bournemouth showed how a team like Cardiff can at least avert a massacre. Chelsea showed they are not yet ready to face the full range of Premier League opponents, even if they have won all 12 points this season.
In the first batch of games Chelsea looked like they could put on a decent display of Sarrismo if only they were facing the right opponent, someone more compliant, someone who would give Chelsea a bit more space in the final third. On Saturday they must make their first display of creating under any circumstances. They will see much less of the ball against Liverpool and other more forthcoming teams this season. Those teams will also pose a much greater goal-scoring threat.
Chelsea must start creating chances from nothing and finishing them clinically, because they may have significantly fewer chances in upcoming games.
The Blues are two weeks further along their learning curve than were when Bournemouth visited Stamford Bridge. They must display that in Wales, because they are two weeks closer to facing Liverpool and opening two more competitions.