Drogba, Costa, Hazard: Chelsea thrive when they can rely on top scorer

Chelsea needed Eden Hazard to keep their Carabao Cup hopes alive, and he delivered with one of his all-time best. The Blues should not be concerned about relying on their star – they are at their best when one player dominates the team’s goal scoring.

Eden Hazard has five of Chelsea’s 13 goals in the Premier League this season, and six of 16 in all competitions. Hazard had assists against Huddersfield and Arsenal, and goals in both of Belgium’s games in the UEFA Nations League. In his last 10 games for club and country – going back to the World Cup third-place game – he has only failed to register a goal or an assist once: the scoreless draw at West Ham.

Hazard’s prolificness and the signficance of his offence – he assisted on the winning goal against Arsenal and scored the winner against Liverpool – has led to some concern among fans that the team are too dependent on Hazard. If Chelsea struggle to win – or even create scoring chances – without him, then he will have few opportunities to rest in any competition. The Blues will then be even further at the mercy of fate if overplaying Hazard leads to an injury or fatigue.

However, Chelsea have had their most success when one player scores a disproportionate amount of the goals. Since 2009/10, the Blues’ leading scorer averages 22.3% of the team’s Premier League goals. In only three seasons did the leading scorer make up a higher proportion: 2009/10, 2014/15 and 2016/17. Chelsea won the Premier League in each of those seasons.

Diego Costa led the scoring for the last two title runs, netting 20 goals in each season. Didier Drogba had 29 goals en route to the 2009/10 title, with Frank Lampard scoring another 22. That was the only season in which two Blues scored over 20 goals.

A larger number of goalscorers does not predict success. In fact, the data suggests the opposite. The worst season of the last decade – finishing 10th place in 2015/16 – had the most players in the goals column (19).

The next two lowest finishes – sixth-place in 2011/12 and fifth-place last season – saw the next highest number of goal-scorers: 15 and 16, respectively. Sixteen Blues also scored en route to the third-place finish in 2012/13. The club had the fewest goalscorers in 2014/15 (Premier League champions) and 2010/11 (second place).

Chelsea’s goal-scoring patterns show the dynamics that have served this club well during their most successful years. They rarely have the Premier League’s top scorer. Of the years we looked at here, only Didier Drogba’s 29 in 2009/10 won the Golden Boot. Going back through the remainder of the Roman Abramovich era, Nicholas Anelka (2008/09) and Drogba (2006/07) were the only other Golden Boot winners. The Blues did not win the Premier League in either year, but did win in the two years when Frank Lampard led the team with a modest 19 and 20 goals in 2004/05 and 2006/07, respectively.

This suggests the Blues work best when one player’s hunger for goals and wins drive his performances, and the team coalesces in support of him. At the play-by-play level, this means players want to build towards Eden Hazard because they – like him – want him to score. If they see the team’s goals and glory coming from him, they will arrange themselves accordingly.

Olivier Giroud may be the physical target man, but Eden Hazard should become the tactical target man.

Doing so creates opportunities for those supporting offence players. They are not self-sacrificing altruists here. Chelsea’s second-highest scorer had over a dozen goals in each of those title-winning seasons. Having one player score so many goals means the opposition must adjust their defence to cover him. This creates space for the other forwards, and they become the secondary outlet when the primary is well-marked but pulling the defence out of position.

It’s ironic that when Eden Hazard is in a slump, fans and the occasional coach will tell him to be more selfish. Now that he is in his best form, his successful selfishness becomes a cautionary note about Chelsea relying on him too much.

Two goal-scoring metrics point the way to a successful Chelsea season: 20 goals coming from a player who makes up over one-fifth of the team’s offence. Call it the 20/20 rule.

Eden Hazard is cruising towards both. Of all the lingering reasons for concern around Stamford Bridge, relying on a Belgian wizard is not among them.