Chelsea has had Mark Hughes’ number in recent fixtures. They should not expect anything out of the ordinary from his latest project.
Mark Hughes does not like playing Chelsea. The last time a Hughes’ team managed to beat the Blues was when Jose Mourinho was in his last meltdown in 2015/2016. The last time they gained a point against Chelsea was when Guus Hiddink was looking for the drawing record. Overall, Hughes’ has only defeated Chelsea five times out of 32 chances.
Antonio Conte whipped him silly, even last season. Over six matches (and two Hughes’ teams), Conte beat Hughes every time to the tune of 20 goals for the Blues and five for Hughes. Maurizio Sarri, having brought in a new style, should find things easy enough. He has seen what Hughes’ can do elsewhere because it is hardly revolutionary.
Most of this season, Hughes has set the team up in a standard 4-4-2. Now, the 4-4-2 is not as outdated as some will pretend, but it is for teams that cannot play it in a certain way. It takes a great deal of fitness and intelligence to make the 4-4-2 work these days, and Southampton is just not there yet.
Hughes is probably best known for changing Stoke City from Tony Pulis’ long ball style to something more proactive. Some might even say “sexy” and the phrase “Stokealona” was thrown about a few times. But when things started to go wrong at Stoke, he reverted to a very Stoke like style that is already showing up in Southampton.
Offensively, Southampton is going to look to play the ball down the wings before crossing it back in for a header or low shot. It will rarely be fast and it usually does not start as a long ball style. As the game progress, it can easily become just that.
Defensively, Southampton is incredibly poor but they will try to win the ball back aggressively. They will drop back and try to defend with numbers (something they have generally been poor at). The longer the game goes on, the more they will lean on the aggressiveness and the long balls to make things happen.
The only strength Southampton really has right now is that they are still growing under Hughes. At some point, they might look like his “sexy” Stoke, but it will likely require quite a few signings. Of course, that tap could be turned on at any moment now and hosting a giant is always one of those times. They are likely to copy Newcastle and West Ham’s game plan as they look to frustrate Chelsea into mental slips.
But if Chelsea and Maurizio Sarri can stay calm tactically, this one should be very straight forward. As already mentioned, this Chelsea team is used to beating Hughes like a drum. Southampton, over years of poaching (by mostly Liverpool), is just not a team capable of the things they used to be. They saw a slight uptick under Hughes last season, but they seem to have reverted to their middling status prior to him.
This should be pretty straight forward for the Blues so long as they play smart and take their chances. One should never assume a win, but this one seems like a pretty solid bet.