Chelsea’s away fixture to Burnley came in matchweek 31 last season, and it saw the long-awaited debut of a two-striker formation with Olivier Giroud and Alvaro Morata. Maurizio Sarri should try something similar in Eden Hazard’s absence.
Chelsea may reach new levels of suffering with ball at Turf Moor today. Burnley are 17th in possession, 19th in shots taken and, well, if you don’t know what to expect from Sean Dyche you must be really new around here. On the plus side, Burnley are top – or bottom, depending on your perspective – in shots conceded. But (there’s a always a but) Burnley have only allowed goals on 9% of those shots, a percentage closer to Chelsea than their comrades in the bottom half of the table.
And, of course, a plethora of shots coming from overwhelming possession has been a recipe for frustration rather than success for Chelsea this season. Against opponents who play a variant of what Burnley will do, the Blues have not been able to find the vertical passes, the runners in behind or anything out of their strikers to turn possession and passing into product. If Chelsea have to play without Eden Hazard – which is likely the case as of this writing – they could be in for 90 minutes of 75% suffering.
Chelsea could go into the game with no fresh wingers. Pedro and Willian both played an hour against BATE Borisov less than 72 hours before kick-off at Turf Moor. The Europa League match was Willian’s eight consecutive start since mid-September.
Pedro played the No. 10 role behind Olivier Giroud and Alvaro Morata in this fixture last season. Antonio Conte took the occasion to finally play a 3-5-2 with his two proper strikers, something he rarely (ever?) did with Michy Batshuayi and Morata, and that he waited three months to do with Giroud.
This trio could reprise their role from April, but at the top of a 4-3-3 (technially 4-3-1-2, but let’s not frighten Maurizio Sarri with something new). Pedro could play the role as widely and freely as necessary to poke and probe Burnley’s defence for any way through. His quintessential runs combined with Giroud’s magnetism could divert the defenders just enough to allow a few passing and shooting lanes to open through the box. Yes, this would pile the pressure on Alvaro Morata to score. But the minimal amount of time and space Giroud and Pedro would open up would be just the amount Morata needs: minimal. He would only have time and space to react, not think. Perfect.
The option is to play Ross Barkley in the No. 10 role. Whereas Pedro would play touchline-to-touchline and look for ways to turn the corner around the Burnley defence, Barkley would make Chelsea’s offence almost entirely vertical. The formation would effectively be 4-D-2, which would not be too much of a difference given the narrowness of much of Chelsea’s play.
Barkley and Giroud are the only pair of forwards at Chelsea who could go pound-for-pound with Burnley’s defence. Whereas Pedro would work with Giroud to drag defenders around and distort the low block, Barkley and Giroud would battle almost man-to-man. This would be Chelsea’s wrecking ball offence. The end result, though, would be much the same: time and space for Morata.
Both Pedro and Ross Barkley are effective shooters from distance: Pedro with curling shots to the far top corner, Barkley with powerful drives wherever he can place them. If Chelsea – like most Burnley opponents – take most of their shots from the edge of the box, these are the two forwards most likely to score. This makes them a dual threat in this formation, creating chances as the No. 10 and taking effective shots from long-range.
The opponent, the injury to Eden Hazard and the fatigue on the wingers bolster the case for something other than the usual 4-3-3. Eden Hazard has been the only player to create much of anything against opponents like Burnley so far. The strikers have not produced many goals this season playing in single-striker formations, and most of Giroud’s combinations this season have been to support Eden Hazard. A two-striker formation could unstick them, and be the tactical reinvention Chelsea need to get them over the hump.
Perhaps most importantly for Maurizio Sarri (regular reader that he is, and all), this change minimally impacts the rest of the squad and shape. The overall formation is still a 4-3-3 (although expect to hear more about the 4-D-2 from us as the season goes on). The backline and midfield would still be the same players in the same roles as before. If it works wonderfully against Burnley, Eden Hazard could seamlessly slot in upon his return. Ultimately, the only player affected would be the right winger.
The system could also solve Maurizio Sarri’s midfield issues. At least for this Hazard-less game, he could have Ross Barkley and Mateo Kovacic on the pitch together. During the week Sarri all but said they would never play together, which is unsurprising in a 4-3-3 unless he moves Barkley to the wing. But this would allow those two to play together in future games where Eden Hazard is not available or after he is substituted.
Well, we hope you enjoyed thinking about as much as we did. We’ll watch the 4-3-3 with Willian and Pedro flanking Alvaro Morata and hope for minimal suffering.