Maurizio Sarri is prepared to risk everything to secure three points, a berth in the Europa League Round of 32 and a near-mathematical certainty of winning Group L. Bold strategy, Cotton.
Ruben Loftus-Cheek scored a hat trick in Chelsea’s home game against BATE Borisov. The net was still rippling when Maurizio Sarri ordered Victor Moses to strip off his training kit and line up to relieve Willian. Hopefully Loftus-Cheek or maybe Ross Barkley or – who knows and who cares – Davide Zappacosta and Gary Cahill will once again spot Chelsea an early three-goal lead so Maurizio Sarri can get Eden Hazard off the pitch.
Sarri once again padded his rotation numbers with his starting XI at BATE. He made seven changes from the squad that defeated Crystal Palace on Sunday. “That proves he rotates,” the dim bulbs will say. But those changes are just more “rotation-lite.” Four are the back-line. Two are players who were unavailable due to injury on Sunday (Hazard and Olivier Giroud). And the seventh is N’Golo Kante. Good for him, he deserves the rest.
As he has done in recent games, Maurizio Sarri does not have a striker on the bench. Alvaro Morata did not even make the trip. If Olivier Giroud is not able to go 90 minutes for whatever reason, either Willian, Ross Barkley or Eden Hazard will have to step in as a false-nine.
Willian will almost certainly be one of Sarri’s substitutes. Sarri said earlier this week Hazard is only ready for 45-50 minutes, so Willian is a near-lock to come on at halftime or shortly after. This could leave the other two substitutions for Callum Hudson-Odoi and Ethan Ampadu. Hudson-Odoi replaced Pedro in the last game, so a similar margin should see him do the same.
However, in the last game against BATE Borisov, N’Golo Kante came off the bench for Mateo Kovacic in the 77′. Kante is on the bench again, and Sarri is starting his two more attack-minded English midfielders. If at any point he feels the need to protect the result, he will likely withdraw either Barkley or Loftus-Cheek in favour of N’Golo Kante.
The Blues had a three-goal lead when Sarri sent on Kante in the last game. Will a three-goal lead today be enough for Sarri to trust Ethan Ampadu to see things out?
The other, even longer-shot option for Ethan Ampadu to make his Sarrismo debut is in place of Jorginho. Sarri had taken to substituting Cesc Fabregas for Jorginho in recent games, around the 70-80′. Fabregas, though, is not in the squad. The deep-lying midfield position is perfect for Ethan Ampadu. He would play the role as more a defensive midfielder than a rhythmic pass-maker. This would be an ideal choice for seeing out a comfortable win while testing a young player in a new role.
All of the substitution permutations will play out in time. The one thing we know for certain is that Maurizio Sarri is taking a massive gamble with his front line.
Hazard is not at full fitness, yet Sarri took him on a 1,400 mile plane ride (one-way) and will start him despite the game and the group being nearly a foregone conclusion. Giroud is in his first game back from injury, but he has no relief on the bench. And Pedro is approaching Willian levels of the density of starts and appearances in a month.
Perhaps if Chelsea win today the youth will finally get a chance in the remaining dead-rubbers. Well, that assumes PAOK and MOL draw this evening. If one wins, Chelsea will still not have secured Group L. Which means Eden Hazard and the rest could be pressed back into Europa League action in a few weeks, right as Chelsea enter the festive period. Assuming Hazard and the rest are all available and not on the training table.
Playing the youth has gone from being a hope to being a fantasy. Keeping the best XI healthy should be our top item of concern at this point.