A potential ban by FIFA and a rule change by the FA could combine to cripple Chelsea as a club. Both are unlikely but that could always change.
For years now, some of the moves the Blues have made for youth players have come under scrutiny. The club swears up and down that they did everything to the letter of the law, but that did not prevent FIFA from investigating. Supposedly, a section of FIFA has recommended a four window transfer ban for Chelsea (and others).
Meanwhile, the FA is preparing for post Brexit life while also attempting to build the English youth system. To do so, clubs will vote on a proposal to drop the number of non home grown players from 17 to 12.
Now, the FIFA investigation has been discussed for years and has never come to anything (as things involving FIFA rarely do). As for the homegrown rule change, most Premier League clubs are sure to oppose it and prevent it. But what if the worst case scenario happens and both actions occur? Individually, Chelsea could cope with the two events. Together, they have the potential to cripple the club for years to come.
Chelsea is very much an international squad. The Blues have the money and resources to bring in some of the best players from around the world at every age level. To suddenly cut five of those players may not seem like a lot, but for a club like Chelsea constantly brushing against the current limit, a strain would be created. Tough choices would have to be made.
Of course, Chelsea’s academy is one of the best in Europe. So in theory, plenty of young and great English players could fill in. But that has rarely been the case at Chelsea. The Blues hire and fire managers too quickly and have expectations too high to ever get the youth integrated.
The transfer ban would likely cause Chelsea to go on a spending spree the likes of which has not been seen since Roman Abramovich’s early days. But if the new homegrown rules went into place after that while the ban was still on, Chelsea would be left very short handed.
Furthermore, other clubs would be well aware of Chelsea’s troubles. They would charge a premium for their players foreign and domestic. The players staying, especially the non homegrown players, would demand massive wages to stay on board through the ban and because they too would become premium with non homegrown spots becoming tighter.
Of course, all of this is just worst case scenarios. If FIFA were going to find something to ban Chelsea for, they would have had plenty of time in the past few years. As for the homegrown rule change, it would be shocking to see Premier League clubs actually vote for it. They would lose a competitive advantage both in international matches and the market.
But keep in mind that nothing is impossible. And if these changes happen Chelsea would be crippled by them. The Blues can cope with one major event but not both at the same time. How far the Blues slip in that scenario is unknown, but it would take years to catch back up.