How and when teams score and concede can paint a picture of the team. Chelsea is leaving most of the action late as they win through attrition.
Make no mistake; teams look at when certain actions happen to determine what issues the club is having. Data may be a dirty word for some clubs and fans but almost every top team uses numbers to figure out their weak points.
Martin Laurence of The Guardian wrote a fantastic article showing when Premier League clubs are scoring and conceding. Broken into 30 minute blocks, he analyzed which teams are getting things done late or slipping up late.
The Chelsea placement is particularity interesting. The numbers show that the Blues are scoring late in games and are also conceding late more often than not. But why?
Sarri’s team is scoring more often than not late in matches. In the first hour, the club has scored 13 goals. In the last 30 minutes alone they have 14. This implies one of two things. The first is that the substitutes are frequently game changing even if they do not put their name on the score sheet. The second is that eventually Chelsea simply wears the opponent down.
The former is perhaps more surprising because Sarri’s substitutes are almost always like for like on paper. Of course, Chelsea is lucky to have several players for each position that offer unique styles. Pedro is far more direct than Willian. Mateo Kovacic is a better defender than Ross Barkley. Olivier Giroud can be a much better target man than Alvaro Morata. The list goes on.
Defensively, the Blues start strongest. The first half hour has seen Chelsea concede just one goal. The middle of the game and the end of the game the team has conceded four and three goals respectively.
The implication there is that Chelsea start very solidly if not cautiously. They are not getting over extended and the pressing and defensive block is confounding the opponent. As the match goes on, spaces are either found or made and that is when the goals conceded occur.
Chelsea’s goals conceded rising as the match goes on coincidences with the Blues scoring more as the match goes on. So as Chelsea seek a goal and become more aggressive offensively, they become weaker defensively. This is of course a natural trade off any team in the world would make.
So what does all this mean? Well it means that Chelsea is hardly coming out hot or finishing completely solidly. Both are mentality issues. A team that starts slow every time is one issue and a team that loses its head late on is another massive issue. Both come down to the manager picking the right players for the job or ensuring they have their head in the right place going in and during the match.
Like most things in the league since last year, Pep Guardiola seems to have the secret formula. His team is scoring and conceding throughout the match at virtually the same pace. If Maurizio Sarri wants his Chelsea to start better offensively and finish stronger defensively, then he needs to turn to his tika taka friend and find the solution.