Chelsea: 4-2-3-1 still the most viable alternative, but with heavy caveats

Tottenham generously donated a 90-minute instructional video to the rest of the Premier League on how to defeat Chelsea FC. Given the current set-up, Maurizio Sarri’s 4-3-3 is a roadmap out of the top six.

Maurizio Sarri has relied on much the same tactical system and formation since matchweek four of the 2015/16 season at Napoli. Saturday’s loss to Tottenham introduced him to the realities of the Premier League in a way he has not experienced before. Mauricio Pochettino crafted an impeccable plan that countered every critical element of Sarrismo. And yet the opponent will only get more clever, better drilled and, well, whatever superlatives you wish to use for Manchester City.

If Sarri continues to rely on the 4-3-3 with his usual XI and his usual system, the result against Tottenham will become the norm. Even if Sarri does not develop bespoke tactical packages for each game, he must develop a new fundamental plan other than the 4-3-3 Tottenham dismantled, even if just to have multiple options within or between these games.

A 4-2-3-1 continues to be the most viable alternative for Chelsea given the players available and the need to stray as little as possible and only as far as necessary from Sarri’s true preference. However, the 4-2-3-1 would require some significant adjustments from its usual implementation because of one of Sarri’s unshakable preferences: Jorginho.

The 4-2-3-1 succeeds out of the box when it has two strong defensive midfielders who can form the double pivot. Each individual needs to do his part to protect the centre-backs while also funnelling and transitioning play through the centre.

N’Golo Kante and Nemanja Matic are the archetypal double pivot of Chelsea’s recent past. Kante excels at defence and Matic is a stronger pivot, but both are highly capable of performing both duties, making them a solid pair.

Jorginho is too deficient in his defending to take on the role of a holding midfielder in this formation. His level of defensive ability would force Kante to cover an expanse of midfield that even Kante may not be able to cover. While they each excel at their respective duties as the holding midfield pair, Jorginho does not offer enough defensively for them to be a functional unit.

But Maurizio Sarri will not drop Jorginho, which means the rest of the formation must accommodate his presence. To compensate for his defensive deficiencies in this position, Chelsea would need to surround him with a winger, full-back and centre-back capable of pitching in where and when necessary.

The first adjustment would be having Cesar Azpilicueta drop even deeper and more centrally, particularly when Jorginho is on the ball. During the Tottenham game Azpilicueta often took up just such a position, likely to cover for David Luiz’s performances. He moved into his right centre-back position from the last two seasons to give Chelsea an ersatz three-man defence.

The defence in this 4-2-3-1 would be more of a “3+1,” as Azpilicueta and the two centre-backs make up the core of the back line with Marcos Alonso playing his usual version of left-back. By having three centre-backs, the holding midfielders would have less area to protect and lighter consequences if the opposition moves past them. This would also only be a slight exaggeration of the asymmetry the Blues currently have – and that Sarri prefers – between the two full-backs.

Azpilicueta would only join the back line as a centre-back as the situations dictate. When Chelsea were in their full defensive shape they would be in the standard back-four to support Sarri’s preferred 4-4-2 on defence. Azpilicueta is smart and experienced enough to know when to be on the flank as a right back and when to be on the back line as a centre-back, and this would make up a large part of the defence’s training and organization.

However, any move towards the back line would necessary open up space on the right flank.

Chelsea would therefore need a winger capable of tracking back to cover the space on Chelsea’s right that Azpilicueta would vacate to cover the area in the midfield left vulnerable by Jorginho. They not only need a player with the requisite work rate and willingness to play such a defensive role, but someone with the defensive abilities to be effective. They cannot assign a winger who will get easily beat or who will give up cheap fouls out of desperation to slow down the play.

In short, they would need a player on the right side with a wing-back’s skill set. Until and unless Ross Barkley adds a large defensive element to his game, Chelsea would have to turn to Victor Moses. Under Antonio Conte, Cesar Azpilicueta’s defensive strength excused Moses’ relative defensive weakness on the right. Under this hypothetical Maurizio Sarri formation, Moses’ defensive strength relative to any other winger would be enough to protect the areas left open by the Azpilicueta-Jorginho shifts.

Finally, since so much of this is about protecting Chelsea’s centre-backs, Maurizio Sarri would need a stronger centre-back pairing. The centre-backs need to marshal the movements of these players to ensure they are protected. They also need the discipline and wherewithal to know when to move up to protect Jorginho from behind as the other players protect him on the flank and in front. There is no point in crafting a defensive system around Jorginho only to leave him exposed on his goal side.

This starts with having two defensive-minded and defensively strong centre-backs. That is to say, not David Luiz. More positively, given the amount of changes and experimentation already at play here, the Blues would need a sturdy, unadventuresome, experienced leader, at least for the start. Gary Cahill would be the ideal defender to manage the transition to the 4-2-3-1 alongside Antonio Rudiger. Neither would be in any danger of going on a trek up the pitch, both defend selflessly and both have the experience and intelligence to read the play in front of them and direct their teammates accordingly.

Once the Blues are running smoothly in this system Sarri can experiment with Andreas Christensen and Ethan Ampadu. But Christensen has had too many mental and physical lapses to be given the reins on this system, and both he and Ampadu are too young and inexperienced to direct the flow of traffic.

This run of games culminating in the December 8 fixture against Manchester City perfectly exemplifies the multi-front war Sarri never had to engage in at Napoli. Perhaps someday the Blues will have the players and training for Sarri to implement his pure form of Sarrismo.

But if he does not adapt to the realities of the league he is currently in – the same way Pep Guardiola, Jurgen Klopp and every other successful ideological coach has done – he will not last long enough to do it his way.