Maurizio Sarri has created a big tangled ball of conflicts for himself. Even Chelsea’s FA Cup opener against Nottingham Forest has a mess of overlapping concerns.
Early-round cup ties against lower-tier opposition should be a relaxing day off for the best XI, an invigorating challenge for the youth and fringe players and a chance for the coaching staff to try new things. Last season’s EFL Cup tie against Nottingham Forest was just such a game. But not too many players from that night are around to ask. Four of Chelsea’s starters and two substitutes from that game are currently on loan. Three of the other starters could be gone by the end of the month.
Nottingham Forest sit in seventh place in the Championship. Their style of play under Jose Mourinho-protege Aitor Karanka is exactly what Chelsea have struggled with this season. They sit deep, park the bus and absorb pressure. In their last game against Championship leaders Leeds United, Forest had 37% possession despite playing 48 minutes with a man advantage. Karanka’s men won 4-2. In the reverse fixture in late October, Forest had only 30% possession en route to a Mourinho-approved 1-1 draw.
This should be an opportunity for Chelsea to practice new ways of breaking down such a defence. Forest are well-drilled and highly disciplined, but their underlying stats and four-point gap from sixth place put them firmly in the second-tier.
Chelsea’s starters need help against compact, reactive low blocks. They could benefit from testing new ideas out against a weaker opponent in a lower-stakes setting.
But they also need a rest. They have had three wingers come out of games with injuries, and Olivier Giroud and Mateo Kovacic are on the injury list. The rest of the main squad are probably just an overwrought sprint, awkward landing or off-balance stretch from a few days on the training table.
Of course, Chelsea doesn’t much have a B-squad who can fill in at a moment’s notice. The B-squad is really just six players – including four defenders – who are called into action for the Europa League and Carabao Cup. None are truly match fit, as the last Europa League group stage game was a month ago. Some of them are on their way out the door. And Chelsea have a Carabao Cup game on Tuesday.
While the best XI + 3 are used to playing every three games, the B-squad (such as it is) have a foundation of one game per week. Going from one game a week to no games in a month to two games in three days is as much a recipe for injuries as not doing any resistance training in excess of bodyweight (what, too soon?).
Besides, that Carabao Cup game is against Tottenham. Tottenham won their FA Cup opener against Tranmere Rovers. For reasons of ambition, match sharpness, banter or bloodlust, Mauricio Pochettino went so far as to send Harry Kane on in the 75′. He scored the final goal in a 7-0 win.
But Tranmere Rovers are in League Two, hardly a point of comparison for an upcoming match against Chelsea, right?. Except Tottenham defeated Arsenal 2-0, Everton 6-2, Bournemouth 5-0 and Cardiff 3-0, with the 3-1 loss to Wolves interrupting that run.
Pochettino’s use of Kane to close out the game while resting many other of his best XI indicates Spurs will come full-bore at Chelsea. Maurizio Sarri will need to respond in kind. Tottenham could put this tie out of Chelsea’s reach on Tuesday. Maurizio Sarri would be out of his first English cup competition, would lose to Tottenham twice in one season with a Premier League fixture remaining and would be no further along in his squad development.
Chelsea arguably need to use Nottingham Forest to build confidence and sharpness among the best XI so they can be at their best – the club’s best – against Spurs.
The FA Cup tie against Championship competition with an EFL Cup tie against Premier League competition three days later should (my least favourite word) be a clear and simple match for squad rotation.
On the other hand, an FA Cup tie against a lower-tier opponent whose tactics are the kind Chelsea have struggled with all season should be an experimental, educational practice match. Maybe one with a blended squad so the starters can try some new approaches, test wih new combinations and tactics and then come off early in the second. That way they can still be ready for the imminent matches ahead.
But those thoughts are built on the premise that there is a B-squad of match-sharp players who are experienced enough with the current tactics to stand in for injured starters and experiment with new ideas. That would have required rotation earlier in the season, bringing more players into the Europa League and Carabao Cup starting XI’s and the Premier League substitute ranks.
Those notions also follow from the premise that the players who would gain anything from the match will carry that through to future matches. But many of the B-squad will be gone by the end of the month, taking their knowledge and experience (of much more than just this game) with them. Unless Sarri wants the lessons learned from this game to come purely from video review and not direct experience, he will have to use his A-squad players since they will at least be with the squad for the rest of the competition.
Hindsight is 20/20, but foresight on these matters shouldn’t be that much blurrier. Situations like this were foreseeable throughout the first half of the season. And here we are.