In the next four matches, Chelsea plays Tottenham twice, Arsenal once, and Newcastle once. The run can determine Maurizio Sarri’s tenure and the season.
Comparisons of Chelsea at this point last season to Chelsea at this point this season were not wrong because of the former being a second season for Antonio Conte and the latter being a first season for Maurizio Sarri. They were wrong because at this point last year, it had not all gone wrong for Conte yet.
Last season will largely be associated with what happened in the back half of the season, not the front end. That all started in January where Chelsea suddenly started drawing every single opponent. The Blues were (and remain) a team that creates low quality chances but often finds the net anyways. That ratio shifted back to the mean in January of last year and Conte and his side started to spiral out of control at the end of the winter pile up of matches.
Sarri’s side has been struggling since the Burnley match but even more so since the loss to Tottenham Hotspur (the Manchester City victory being the outlier). And just as January ultimately defined Chelsea’s season last year and Conte’s tenure, so too will this January for Sarri. The next four matches will be the ones that tell the tale of Sarri as Chelsea manager.
First up is leg one of the League Cup semifinals against Tottenham. No other side has so effectively swatted the Blues aside like Mauricio Pochettino’s men did. The Blues left that match lucky that they kept the score line to 3-1.
The question is whether the victory and tweaks against City were a result of the loss to Tottenham or if they would have happened regardless. Sarri’s side cannot start the two legs with a loss and unless he opts to make similar tweaks as he did against City, the Blues may be behind the eight ball before the tie has even begun.
Newcastle United follows. Chelsea played Newcastle early in the season to a 2-1 victory, but it was a cagey affair that required a late own goal to see the Blues over the line. Rafa Benitez knows that he needs points and he will do everything he can to choke Chelsea’s possession out. Since the Blues have struggled against parked buses all season, they are likely to do so again.
Depending on how the first Tottenham result goes in pair with the Newcastle result, the mentality of the squad heading into the next two fixtures could telling.
Arsenal is next up after a week of rest for both sides. Chelsea beat their rival 3-2 early into Unai Emery’s and Sarri’s tenures. But it was not as cut and dry as the score line suggests. The Blues were probably luckier than not to win as Arsenal sliced the defense to pieces on both goals.
Arsenal is not necessarily in a more stable place than Sarri’s Chelsea tactically. Both are still adapting and both have shown promise and dips. This match is a six pointer for fourth place and both teams will go into the fixture knowing that the winner will be far more secure in pursuit of Champions League football than the loser.
To finish the run is the second leg against Tottenham. It is hard to tell the mentality the Blues will enter into the match with given the time and amount of games between then and now. So long as the Blues drew or won the first leg, they should be able to enter this fixture with the focus needed to make it into the final.
These four games can define Sarri’s Chelsea tenure. Worst case scenario is Chelsea drops out of the League Cup with a whimper and drops points to Newcastle and Arsenal. That could see the Blues not only out of competition for one piece of silverware but possibly outside the top four. That is nearly the same situation Conte found himself in last season as the squad spiraled for the remainder.
Of course, the opposite could also happen. Chelsea could sweep Tottenham aside in the first leg and make the final easily in the second. Six points from the two Premier League fixtures could see Chelsea with a somewhat comfortable hold on top four. And Sarri will look like the man with a plan again.
Sarri likely knows that more than anything, the next four games could determine his fate. Not right away (even Chelsea is not that trigger happy anymore), but over time. The four results will reverberate through the remainder of the season. Will Chelsea build the launch pad for something great? Or will they start digging their own grave?