Chelsea should pause to think about Atletico Madrid’s interest in Alvaro Morata

Chelsea should pause to consider Atletico Madrid’s interest in Alvaro Morata. If Atletico want him, perhaps he is worth keeping.

Atletico Madrid and Chelsea have long had a special relationship for loans and transfers. Alvaro Morata is adding one more thing to his list of attributes in common with Fernando Torres and Diego Costa now that he is linked with a move to Atletico. Despite the similarities with the other Spanish international No. 9’s to go from Stamford Bridge to the Wanda Metropolitano under gloomy circumstances, Morata is an atypical target for Atletico.

Atletico rarely acquire more than one high-value, marquee player in a season. They usually buy a large number of players for low to midrange transfer fees. Many of them over-perform expectations, whether through Simeone’s excellent training and man-management or because his tactics are so meticulously drilled and enforced that they cover up individual deficiencies.

Last summer, Atletico’s most expensive signing – Thomas Lemar at £63 million – cost over three times as much as their second-most expensive, Rodri. In the years before their transfer ban, Atletico operated in a much narrower range, with their most expensive player costing only slightly more than the 3-4 players behind him.

Chelsea paid £58 million for Alvaro Morata. That amount would be the third-most expensive player in Atletico’s history, behind Lemar and Costa.

Much of Atletico’s success has come through those midrange acquisitions. Their third-most expensive player, Jackson Martinez, arrived in 2015/16. He had little impact and is now at Portimonese in Liga NOS. Next on the list is Vitolo, who has missed most of this season with injury. Diego Costa, for his part, has scored only two goals in La Liga this season. He is one of seven Atletico Madrid players with a pair of goals. Meanwhile team leader Antoine Griezmann – acquired for £27 million, less than one third of his current value – has eight goals.

One reading of this record is that their more expensive players flop at the same rate as their midrange players.

However, Atletico sign so few players in this price range that the sample is barely large enough to draw any conclusions. Signing a player worth £50+ million is exceptional for Atletico Madrid.

Also, none of the players Atletico Madrid have signed for over £30 million have anywhere near the level of success and exposure to playing at the highest levels as Alvaro Morata. Indeed, Atletico’s most decorated player in recent years was Fernando Torres, who they acquired on a free transfer and who won most of his trophies with – obviously – Chelsea.

For them to pursue a player like Alvaro Morata for a loan-to-buy is telling exception from their normal way of doing business. It reveals a strong need but also a more judicious assessment than would come from a club like, say, Chelsea.

Before Chelsea hop at the chance to off-load another striker to Atletico Madrid, they should ask themselves if they fully understand what they have in Alvaro Morata, and if they are prepared to lose him. When Atletico Madrid make a transfer offer – for any player, but particularly a high value yet unwanted player – the team should pause for a moment’s reflection. Atletico do not make rash or foolish purchases. They do not buy expensive players without a specific plan for development and role in the tactics. They have a remarkable ability to make high quality players from players that other teams have given up on or were mostly unknown before joining Simeone’s squad.

Atletico Madrid’s interest in a player like Alvaro Morata should be a warning bell that they see something the player’s current club are missing. If they are willing to pay a transfer fee on par with Costa’s and Lemar’s, they have a good reason to expect that level of output.

The Chelsea fans dreaming of Costa’s return would do well to consider how his current club are angling to sign Alvaro Morata. Maurizio Sarri and Chelsea’s board should, as well.