Chelsea played Newcastle at St. James Park in the third week of the Premier League Season. The fixture set the tone for too many of the games to come.
Chelsea’s away fixture against Newcastle was the first of six league games where Jorginho had over 100 passes. He actually had closer to 200, with his 173 passes at Newcastle exceeded only by the 180 at West Ham three weeks later. The Blues had over 1,000 passes over all as they tippy-tappied their way through 81% possession. And yet for all that they needed an Eden Hazard penalty in the 76′ just to get on the board and a DeAndre Yedlin own goal in the 87′ to snatch the win.
Newcastle are not much better off now than they were then. The Magpies have only four wins all season. Three of those came in consecutive weeks in November. Since then they have won once, drawn three times and lost four times in the Premier League. They have the second-fewest goals scored in the league. And the fans are at odds with owner Mike Ashley, so much so that one concurred with Travis calling them a “corpse,” basically imploring us to tell the world what’s happening there.
The one stat that works in Newcastle’s favour is their goals against. Newcastle are 15th place in the table, but have conceded the eighth-fewest goals. Their blocky defence will be the best hope of holding off Chelsea and joining Southampton with a league-leading seven draws.
Chelsea go up against Rafael Benitez’s parked bus with their offence in tatters. Callum Hudson-Odoi has been their most promising attacker in recent games, but he may or may not play because he may or may not be a Blue by the end of the month. Alvaro Morata came back into form in his last two appearances, but may also be on his way out. Even if he stays he is now no better than Maurizio Sarri’s backup option to lead the line.
Eden Hazard is more likely to start as the centre-forward. Despite what Maurizio Sarri will tell you, Hazard visibly does not want to play that position.
In the last few games he has dropped deeper and deeper to pick up the ball. When he does that, none of his teammates – not a winger, not Ross Barkley – move into the position he vacates. They allow a large gap in the front line, nearly the width of the penalty area. There is nothing Newcastle would like to see more than Eden Hazard running away from them to get the ball, then turning back and finding nowhere to go and no one to pass to.
A compact low block that has no interest in venturing out of their final third is the worst opponent for Chelsea’s false-nine Sarrismo.
If Hudson-Odoi and Pedro started, the Blues would at least have a strong crosser on the right and a direct player on the left to offer some variation on the attack. Hudson-Odoi’s crosses may not find much purchase without a target man striker, but at least Chelsea would have the ball going into the box at a threatening angle.
Instead, Sarri is likely to start Willian over Hudson-Odoi. This, again, is fine by Newcastle. His incessant dribbling and delays on counter-attacks – not that Chelsea will have many opportunities on the counter – give Newcastle sufficient time to establish their defensive structure.
Even if the forwards were all on form and tactically proficient, the rest of the XI are still struggling with the manipulative side of Sarrismo. The Blues have not been able to pull their opposition out of position to attack the spaces they leave behind. Jorginho’s passes have been repetitive and unincisive. Yes, he offers a recycling option. But Chelsea fall back too easily on endless recycle and reset passes. The midfielders and the forwards settle in to a static structure that reflects the defence in front of them. Such stalemates always favour the defending side.
Chelsea’s centre-backs have probably been the more useful passers in recent months. David Luiz and Antonio Rudiger have found bright passes to the wings and the centre-forwards. However, those passes are only as good as the space the recipients give themselves to work with. If the Blues manage to catch Newcastle out on a break, they may have some hope. But so far, Hudson-Odoi has done the best job manipulating the space around him when he brings down a pass to create his next option. The rest are either too predictable or too easy to repel with defence in depth.
If this fixture looks anything like the reverse it will be a sad statement on the slow progress the Blues have made in the intervening 18 weeks. Chelsea have faced more than enough English parked buses. They should have a few new techniques to try to get through it.
The last thing anyone needs after 21 weeks of Sarrismo are 1,000 passes, an xG under 1.5 and one-goal victory courtesy of a fortunate series of events.