The many catch-22’s of a Chelsea rebuild over the summer

Chelsea manager Maurizio Sarri wants a rebuild in the summer. There are so many tied together catch-22’s to reach that eventuality.

A catch 22 is a situation where cause and effect are tied together in a circle. The cause can only take place if the effect has occurred, but the effect needs the cause to happen. Chelsea is stuck in a similar loop.

Maurizio Sarri wants to have control over a squad rebuild in the summer. Seemingly, he has looked at who is available in the first team, academy, and loan army and his conclusion is that most need replacing from the outside.

This is where the catch-22’s start. To have a squad rebuild, Sarri needs to qualify for the Champions League. Chelsea simply cannot attract the necessary talent this summer if they have two back to back seasons outside of the competition. But to qualify for the Champions League, Sarri has to use the current crop of players who he sees as unfit for task. He does not know how to motivate them or how to get them to play his way. So how can he possibly qualify for the Champions League with this group to then justify his rebuild?

That is not to mention that if Chelsea qualifies for the Champions League (a target coming into the season) that the board is likely to look at the current squad and say there is no rebuild needed. This same board has done similarly after title wins even as the manager begged for fresh players. But to this board, success once is an indication of future success.

And of course, if there is no Champions League, the chances that Sarri keeps his job are about zero. If he showed willingness to try out more players in the squad and the academy, perhaps that would be different. But as the Chelsea board likely favored Sarri because the “market bored him” and “he prefers to improve players he has”, they will surely be put off by calls for a rebuild by him.

But even if Sarri goes, a rebuild is almost sure to happen. Some players will want to get away as reports of player dissatisfaction rises. Others will want out if they still have no Champions League football. And more will want out for lack of opportunities. Regardless of who is in charge next season, a rebuild of some sort is bound to happen.

So who wins out in this situation? Probably no one really. If Sarri stays and has Champions League, the rebuild he wants is sure to be tempered. If Sarri (somehow) stays and has no Champions League, he will have the loan army and youth thrust upon him to fill in gaps for departures. And if a new manager comes in, Champions League or no, they will be faced with their own set of issues.

All of this could have been avoided had the Europa League been used to integrate youth players. Or if the squad had the motivation for playing time ahead of them. Or any number of things had happened differently.

Now Chelsea is stuck between a rock and a hard place going into the summer. A rebuild of some sort is likely but the scale of it could vary wildly. But it seems very clear that whatever reinforcements Sarri wants, provided he stays, will need to be tempered in expectation.