Chelsea manager Maurizio Sarri is on thin ice, with just how thin varying. The writing is on the wall and the number of games he has is irrelevant.
Nizaar Kinsella of Goal says Maurizio Sarri has three games to save his job. Simon Johnson of The Evening Standard says Sarri has at least three games. The Guardian‘s Ed Aaron puts it at two games with the League Cup final being decisive. And Matt Law of The Telegraph believes a loss to Malmo or Manchester City will be enough. Together, they are the four horsemen of Sarri’s Chelsea apocalypse.
And really at this point, it is more of a matter of “when” not “if”. Chelsea’s recent form has been like a light switch. Every win is followed by a loss (usually a crushing one). Every loss is followed by a win. And whether or not Sarri survives two or three games or more, the writing is already on the wall as to which way this is going.
It is best to take this one match at a time. Malmo is more or less an assumed win, but even a draw or a loss would likely mean little. With the League Cup final on the weekend, even being knocked out of the Europa League would not be enough to sack Sarri. It would be a primer sure, but the club will not want to sack on the eve of a final.
But how that final goes will be incredibly telling. Results have been so poor that even winning his first ever piece of silverware will not guarantee Sarri’s safety. Provided Chelsea is still in the Europa League and they put up a fight, a loss would not see the manger go. But another embarrassing shellacking by City, Europa League or not, might be enough.
If Sarri survives through Malmo and the League Cup final, it appears as though the Tottenham match is a must win. It will be the first match in the league since the City beat down and the Blues cannot afford to keep dropping points. A loss may need Manchester United and Arsenal to get results against Liverpool and Southampton but again it may not matter.
The matches following that, going towards the next international break, are Fulham away, Wolves at home and Everton away. Advancement in the Europa League would also see those matches split by some club on a Thursday night. If Sarri somehow survives all the way to the break, he is likely safe for the remainder of the season regardless of results.
But that is a whole lot of “ifs”. If it really is as simple as lose the League Cup and he is gone, well then the odds are very much against him. And given Chelsea’s current form, even if he wins the League Cup, the chances of also beating Tottenham seem quite low.
Practically the only way Sarri survives at this point is to win the next three games and likely even more after that. It is unclear exactly what would be the breaking point if Sarri beats Malmo, City, and then Tottenham. Would losing to Fulham or Wolves do it? What about coming out of the Europa League later?
And really, does it even matter at this point? There no longer seems to be a realistic way for Sarri to continue next season. When reports of “manager has X games to save his job” start to happen from so many sources, it is more of a “when” rather than an “if”. The goalpost might keep moving but it is rarely attained.
Sarri will need to put together a sustained winning run quickly. Almost any hiccup between now and the March international break could be enough. Can Chelsea win up to eight matches in a row again? Stranger things have happened but it feels very unlikely. And if it does happen, that might be curtains for Sarri’s tenure at Chelsea.