Chelsea: Mateo Kovacic still out of place as a Blue and with Real as ban looms

Chelsea and Real Madrid both saw Mateo Kovacic as an add-on to flashier and more important transfer business. While Kovacic has a regular place in the squad, he is still out of place between the clubs and at Chelsea.

Chelsea really wanted to fulfill everyone’s dream of reuniting Thibaut Courtois with his kids in Madrid, but Real Madrid’s offer was still a bit light. Real Madrid wanted Thibaut Courtois, but their real prize was (is) Eden Hazard. Anything they could do to endear themselves to the Blues, set the groundwork for the mega-transfer a year later and maybe give themselves a slight line of credit would pay major dividends if (when) Hazard trades blue for white.

Chelsea did not have any direct, intrinsic interest in Mateo Kovacic, and Real Madrid did not attach any particular value to whether he left, lingered or loaned. But he satisfied all these dangling ends between the two clubs, so he joined Chelsea on loan with an option to buy.

Eight months later Kovacic has the 11th most minutes for Chelsea, which places him firmly among the regulars, if not Maurizio Sarri’s favourites. The man whose number usually appears next to his on the substitution board 60-70 minutes into games – Ross Barkley – is within 100 minutes of Kovacic, and then there is the steep drop-off to Sarri’s second-tier players.

The third / attacking midfielder role is the closest thing Chelsea have to an open, competitive slot in their lineup. No other position has such parity in playing minutes between two players vying for the spot (500 minutes separate Willian and Pedro, 1600 minutes separate Andreas Christensen from David Luiz).

Neither player is the perfect fit for “the Marek Hamsik role,” as Sarritologists and likely Sarri himself conceive of the attacking midfielder in this 4-3-3. But neither have the immense talent and undroppable factor of N’Golo Kante, who we have been reliably informed is no Allan, but gets the job done just the same. Since neither Kovacic nor Barkley incarnate the Hamsik archetype, Sarri switches them out with predictable predictability.

Jamming one player into another player’s “role” never works out for anyone, even if we control for all the other factors that made Hamsik and Sarri successful at Napoli. The attacking midfielder in a 4-3-3 would not be Kovacic’s best role under any coach, but no other coach would rigidly insist on a system that ill suits so many of his players.

Kovacic’s occasional turns at the base of midfield have dealt further blows to Sarri’s role-based formation, and this formation in particular. Kovacic has a much greater range of abilities on the ball than Jorginho. He is a more skillful, aggressive and direct dribbler. He is more comfortable on the ball, allowing himself time to scan the pitch and move into the right position for the right pass while under pressure. Kovacic also does a better job supporting Eden Hazard and the left-back through one-two’s (something he does in both midfield positions), but also supporting the attacking midfielder when he – Kovacic – is deep.

Chelsea’s left side have shown some of their most dynamic play when Kovacic moves up from deep midfield to directly support Ruben Loftus-Cheek as the attacking midfielder. This interplay between Kovacic and Loftus-Cheek requires N’Golo Kante to shift deeper and more centrally to cover the space vacated by Kovacic, which means it brings N’Golo Kante back to the area of the pitch where he can exert the most control and be at his best. Then, when the play turns against Chelsea, the opposition has to first come through the advanced Kovacic before facing Kante in front of the back-line. The combined effect is usually Chelsea retaking possession, or at least slowing down the play enough for the defenders to take their position and shape.

Kovacic’s potential best position given the players around him, then, is one the Blues are quite familiar with and have the players to support: the more forward-moving of two central midfielders in a double-pivot, whether in a 3-4-3 or 4-2-3-1. To put it into Sarritological terms, the Nemanja Matic role.

All this is pretty well moot, though. We know Maurizio Sarri is not going to change his formation to create the best system for his players. And on the other side, Kovacic may not see a Sarri-less Chelsea.

If the transfer ban stays in place this summer, as it likely will, Mateo Kovacic will have to return to Real Madrid. That will not be a happy homecoming now that Zinedine Zidane is back at the Bernabeu. Zidane did not favour Kovacic in their three years together. Kovacic already has more minutes this season at Chelsea than he did in any season at Real.

He will go back to the same situation that made Real think he could be tossed into a deal for Thibaut Courtois and as an implicit down payment on Eden Hazard.