Chelsea’s dropped points against the bottom half keep top-four margins slim

Four more points would have Chelsea in control of their destiny in their pursuit of Champions League qualification. The Blues cannot even enjoy the gifts handed them by their neighbors in the table.

There was plenty of talk early in the season about the top teams in Europe splitting off into a European Super League or some such nonsense. The subsequent eight months have shown just how presumptuous Chelsea would have to be to think they could stroll into such an elite splinter group. They may have the money and the recent history, but they are hardly a peer of Juventus, Bayern Munich or various clubs in Spain.

Fortunately, the Blues have their own league-within-a-league right at home. Two teams and only two teams are battling for the Premier League title. Fourteen teams have no chance of qualifying for Europe via a top-six finish. That leaves Tottenham, Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea as their quadrangular league. Two teams will go on to the Champions League, and two will be stuck in the Europa League next season.*

Two of the clubs bookending this mini-league did Chelsea favours in the last few days. Liverpool defeated Tottenham (ok, we know – Tottenham defeated Tottenham) and Wolves beat Manchester United. Neither a Liverpool win nor a Wolves win, per se, affects Chelsea at all, but the Spurs and United loss could be massive.

However, Chelsea need to win against Brighton to reap the full benefit of those other games this week. And had Chelsea taken better control of their season earlier, those wins by Liverpool and Wolves would be padding, not lifelines.

The Blues have dropped 16 points against bottom half teams this season. Over the last 10 seasons, the club have dropped more than 20 points against the bottom half only once. That came in 2013/14, when they still managed to finish third. In those other seasons, the only times they dropped fewer than 10 points against bottom-half teams came in two of the three seasons when they won the Premier League title.

The main difference between most of those seasons and the current one is the ceiling. The Blues are rarely in such a battle for the top-four, one with a four-way battle for two top-four spots. Liverpool’s and Tottenham’s perennial bottle jobs usually helps Chelsea win the Premier League title, or at least gives fans a good laugh. They don’t determine where the Blues will be playing their European football in the subsequent season.

While Liverpool have no bearing on the Blues at this point, Chelsea are nearly dependent on Tottenham and either Arsenal or Manchester United bottling their season.

Had Chelsea scrounged a few more points off of Everton, West Ham, Bournemouth or Southampton this season, they could take more satisfaction out of Tottenham’s humiliation and a bit of consolatory revenge from Wolves’ win over United. Instead, the pressure stays on Maurizio Sarri’s men to do something with the opportunity those teams have presented him. If Chelsea cannot finish in the top four, it’s not for lack of help from those other teams who have nothing to lose and nothing to gain vis-a-vis the west Londoners.

*Barring any strange result a la Chelsea 2013. Yes, if English teams win both European cups then all sorts of weird stuff comes into play.