Chelsea and West Ham have an outsized influence on top-six over the run-in

West Ham have nothing left to play for but pride and an upper mid-table finish. Starting with this London derby against Chelsea, though, these two sides can have a disproportionate influence on the top of the table.

West Ham could win their remaining six games and, even if everyone above them in the table lost their remaining fixtures, still come up one point short of the top six. West Ham are 19 points behind sixth-place Manchester United, exactly the same amount as Chelsea are behind league-leaders Liverpool. But with only three points separating the four teams battling for the last two Champions League places, any team who plays multiple top-six teams during the run-in will have an outsized effect.

Chelsea and West Ham are two such teams. Chelsea face Liverpool and Manchester United later this month, giving the Blues a say in the title race to go with a six-point game for the Champions League. West Ham face the Blues, Manchester United and Tottenham, meaning the Hammers have control over nine points among those clubs currently separated by four.

West Ham have so far taken only seven points from the top six teams this season. They defeated Arsenal and Jose Mourinho’s Manchester United, and drew Chelsea 0-0 to end the Blues’ win streak at five games to start the season.

The Hammers, like most other London clubs, have become a bogey team for Chelsea in recent seasons.

Winning against West Ham is a feast-or-famine situation for the Blues. Chelsea won both fixtures in 2014/15 and 2016/17 – their last two title-winning seasons. Other than those four wins en route to titles, the last time the Blues beat West Ham was November 2013.

The Blues’ record against Manuel Pellegrini is similarly equivocal: 3W-3D-3L, with all but the most recent of those games coming from Pellegrini’s time at Manchester City.

While West Ham may not have anything tangible to fight for like European qualification or avoiding relegation, they could still match their best finish of the last 20 years. West Ham are at the bottom of five teams within five points of seventh place, which they achieved in 2015/16 and 2001/02. Two of their other remaining games are against teams also battling for best of the rest: Watford and Leicester. Interestingly, Chelsea also have those two clubs in their run-in.

Both teams tonight, then, are in positions to play the spoiler all around the top half of the table. West Ham can keep Chelsea pinned in the Europa League places. A win will not lift West Ham out of 11th place, but will give them momentum ahead of their trip to Manchester United. If they win against Chelsea and get a result against United, the top six stays the same. But if United were to win after a Blues loss or draw, Chelsea could drop into sixth place. Meanwhile, a win and a result against those top-six clubs could see West Ham within striking distance of seventh place when they host Leicester in two weeks.

Neither Chelsea nor West Ham are in control of their own destinies on the table, but they both have plenty of ways of shaping how the top six and middle five teams shake out. Chelsea need West Ham to roll over tonight at Stamford Bridge, but then bounce back to take points off Tottenham and Manchester United. West Ham will want to demoralize the Blues, but need Chelsea to recover with wins against Watford and Leicester.

Chelsea need to wrest some control back from West Ham with a win tonight, knowing the Hammers could still have a lot to say about whether the Blues are playing on Tuesday or Thursday nights next season.