Chelsea’s second halves start weak, finish strong, are unsatisfying overall

If only halftime were optional, Chelsea might be in much better shape. One-third of the goals Chelsea conceded this season have come in the first 15 minutes of the second half.

Chelsea have had many games this season that could be described as “a game of two halves.” The Blues spend the first 45 minutes in control, whether that is through maintaining possession, creating solid scoring chances or resolutely holding their defensive shape, as they did against Liverpool on Sunday.

After coming back from halftime, though, Chelsea are no longer the dominant team. The second half of many Premier League fixtures have found the Blues sluggish, disjointed, apathetic or simply overrun. Liverpool scored both goals within 10 minutes of the restart, and last month when Chelsea went to the other side of Stanley Park, Everton opened the scoring in the 49′ and cruised to a 2-0 win of their own.

Chelsea have conceded 12 times this season between the 46′-60′. Across all the first halves of this season they have allowed only 14 goals. The final half-hour of games have brought 13 goals against.

A few possibilities could explain this trend. Let’s get the banter out of the way up front. The Blues may come to the field with lower blood oxygenation levels from inhaling Maurizio Sarri’s second-hand smoke for 15 minutes in the locker room. By the time they clear their lungs and return to normal aerobic output, the opponent has taken advantage of their physiological compromise to score.

Moving right along. Maurizio Sarri has spoken several times this season about his struggles to motivate his players. This could effect his halftime team talks as well as his work with the squad during the week.

Sarriball is a double-edged sword when it comes to motivation. Players supposedly enjoy the lengthy spells of possession, the frequent touches on the ball and – when they can pull it off – the rapid passing and running sequences. That’s all well and good, but it take a toll on the players. Making that many repetitive passes in thoroughly rehearsed circuits around a strictly-guarded perimeter rarely less than 20 yards from the goal is physically taxing as well as mentally draining.

After 45 minutes of it, the players need a break. If they did not score in the first half, they also need a reason to keep at it.

Sarriball takes a lot out of the players and – in the Premier League – gives them very little back. They spend 45 minutes doing something that should be fun, something about which they feel well-versed and well-drilled, but rarely get much for their efforts. When they go into the locker room at halftime, they need a reason to come out for another 45 minutes of what brought them so little in the first 45 minutes. What they don’t need is Maurizio Sarri telling them to stay the course and keep doing the only thing he’s had them do this whole season.

The third possibility is the opponent’s tactical adaptation. Chelsea’s opponents know what to expect going into the game now. They should all be well past the point of surprise. The first 45 minutes are the opposition’s chance to see how well their training prepared them to face Chelsea. At halftime, their manager updates the plan based on what he saw. He can make changes with the full confidence that Maurizio Sarri is doing no such thing.

When the teams come out from the break, the opponent is rejuvenated by knowing they have a new plan. Chelsea come out with the same plan and no such reinvigoration. Very often, the opponent’s plan finds early success and then a new equilibrium develops.

That equilibrium lasts for about 15-20 minutes, before Chelsea snatch some late dominance. The Blues have scored 19 of their 57 goals in the final 15 minutes. This is the exact same percentage of goals scored as the first 15 minutes of the second half accounts for goals conceded: 33.3%.

This late surge is likely due to Chelsea’s superior quality and their opponent’s inability to withstand the various forms of in-game pressure for a full 90 minutes. Eden Hazard has scored five of his 16 league goals between the 76′-90′.

Chelsea’s reliance on late goals is one reason why many wins feel like rescues, even against teams well down the table. Maurizio Sarri still does not seem to realize that controlling the ball does not mean controlling the game. The Blues leave their wins late, which could be a sustainable and commendable position if it was the plan. But Sarriball is supposed to be about dominance throughout the game, not three points via snatch-and-grab.

Maurizio Sarri may not like it, but The Chelsea Way has saved him more times than it has hurt him.