Chelsea’s history this season does not bode well for top four

Chelsea needs Champions League football. The Premier League record of the top six looks poor in Chelsea’s case for top four.

The Premier League can often be broken into three parts. There is the top six which remains consistent in its membership. After that is a middle six that does not have to fear relegation. Finally, there is the bottom eight that looks over their shoulders all season. The middle six and bottom eight trade members often but this late into the season they have more or less stabilized.

That is why comparisons can be made with the top six versus each of these segments of the league. And when comparing Chelsea to their rivals, the Blues will not be relishing the run in to finish the season.

Manchester City and Liverpool obviously stand above the rest. Against the top six, Manchester City has the best record followed only by Liverpool. The same holds true for both against the middle six. The bottom eight has given City more trouble than Liverpool who hold a perfect record against the teams currently watching out for relegation.

Tottenham has played 33 matches and have earned 67 points. They have a spread of opponents left to play with only Manchester City offering a true worry. Tottenham has the fifth best record against the top six, earning only 25.9% of points available. They can feel better about Brighton, West Ham, and Bournemouth as they have taken 77.8% of points from the middle six and 86.7% from the bottom eight.

Arsenal’s away form will make them worry about having three away matches left, but their record against those opponents comes out well. They have 75.5% of points from the middle six and 82% from the bottom eight. They have two matches in the former and three in the latter remaining, so if they can get past their away form they will be sitting pretty.

The biggest positive the Blues can draw from any of their top six rivals is that United has two top six opponents left and their record against those teams has only yielded 25% of available points. They also trend towards the lower end of the middle six and bottom eight record compared to the rest of the top six, so really everything will come down to the match against Chelsea.

Chelsea record against the top six is good, but it is based heavily on home form rather than away. Even with United coming off the boil somewhat, the Blues should have all eyes on the result against the Red Devils.

It is the fixtures against Leicester City and Watford that Chelsea may have to truly worry about. Two months ago, the record against the middle six was bad. It has not changed. The Blues have only taken 40% of the points available against the middle six, the worst of the entire top six by far. Arsenal has the fifth best record against the middle six and they still have managed 75.5%.

Against the bottom eight Chelsea has been a bit of a flat track bully, though still only good enough to be fourth of six. Burnley is the only match remaining in that group and though they have faced a resurgence, a home win is expected by the Blues.

Where does that leave Chelsea? In a tight spot. The Blues need to overcome at least two teams to make the top four. They can all but ensure United is one with a victory. But where the other one comes from is hard to see.

Chelsea can max out at 78 points. Tottenham can hit 82. And Arsenal can hit 81. At a minimum, Chelsea would need to earn at least five more points than Tottenham or four more to avoid Arsenal. With only four matches left for Chelsea, but five for the North Londoners, the margin for error is gone.

Chelsea’s best bet of making the Champions League is going to be the Europa League. Top four is mathematically possible, but Chelsea’s record against their three rivals for the spot and their extra match means it is unlikely.