Chelsea is in control of their own top four destiny. They have been for weeks as everyone in the top four stumbles into mediocrity.
While the race for the Premier League title is going down to the wire between two teams that will give up no ground, the race for top four has become a case of who is less mediocre. Regardless of which two teams make top four, it will be more of a case of being the least awful on a day rather than truly deserving Champions League football.
Just when it seems a team can pull clear, they fall. But the four sides are all failing together so they are still helping each other out. Teams that are traditionally enemies have given each other so much slack in the race that it is still anyone’s to win or lose.
Take match day 35 for instance. The day started with Tottenham on 70 points and United on 64 points with Arsenal and Chelsea sandwiched in between. The day ended with three of the teams losing. Only Chelsea got a result; a measly point against a “antifootball” Burnley who’s plan clearly worked to perfection.
Things did not get any better on match day 36. Tottenham lost their first match in their new stadium to West Ham. Arsenal rolled over to Leicester. And Manchester United and Chelsea’s slap fight ended at 1-1.
Chelsea has played last in these circumstances and has failed to capitalize on their rivals slipping up. Simply winning against Burnley would have all but guaranteed Champions League football next year.
But now these teams need to fight their own narratives to survive. Manchester United is the only team without Europe to think about and they have two easy fixtures remaining. Even with their poor form, wins away to Huddersfield and at home to Cardiff are expecting. That would top them out at 71 points.
Unai Emery’s Arsenal has to consider Valencia around a Brighton match they should win. Burnley away on the final day will clearly be more difficult and that is without considering how atrocious Arsenal has been away from home this season. Still, at least four points seems likely as they aim for a finish on 70 points.
Mauricio Pochettino will be feeling internal pressure with Ajax in the Champions League. They know they should be getting by the Dutch side which might distract them from their final Premier League matches. They go away to Bournemouth between the Ajax matches and though Bournemouth has been poor for months, it is always hard to discount them. They finish with Everton who, despite their good home form, are quite bad away to the top six. Spurs only need three points to guarantee top four and they should be getting them in one of those two matches.
The worry of course, is Chelsea. On paper, Chelsea should be making top four with Watford and Leicester left. Chelsea’s struggles against the midtable sides has not eased at all. With both Watford and Leicester aiming for the best of the rest spot (and possibly Europa League), that is one issue.
The other issue is Chelsea’s form after Europa League knockout matches. Since the knockout stages began, Chelsea has lost three times and drawn three times. Interestingly, those results are well spread out with a loss and a draw within each Europa League round.
By Chelsea’s own form and history this season, that means the Blues could be looking at just one more point (Watford most likely). Assuming Chelsea keeps the goal difference advantage on Arsenal (which is extremely tight, no thanks to a 4-0 and 6-0 loss this season), the Blues need four more points to all but guarantee top four.
But given how recent match weeks have gone, it is anyone’s guess who will cross the line. United appears to be the only side that should be confident in six out of six points as the other three continue to juggle Europe. This will go down to the wire and Sarri will hope his men are the team that wins the race of the frenemies.