Tottenham extended another hand to pull Chelsea up into third place this weekend. The Blues are part of an unprecedented slump among teams battling for the final Champions League places, which means they could slide in to where they barely belong.
Two red cards and a 90′ goal from former Chelsea player Nathan Ake opened the door for Chelsea to move into third place going into the final matchweek of the season. Tottenham have played one more game are only two points ahead of the Blues. A win against Watford would keep the Blues in control of their own destiny for Champions League qualification through a top-four finish, and would place one north London team as a buffer against the other one in the spots below.
None of the four teams challenging for the last two Champions League berths are making strong cases for their inclusion. Collectively they are having the worst run-in of any teams in their position in Premier League history.
As of Saturday, the teams in 3rd – 6th place have a combined record of 6W-3D-11L in their last five games. Even if the four teams win their remaining games, their record over the last five matchweeks would be 8W-3D-9L. This would equal the worst combined run-in from teams in these four places, set in 2009/10 with Arsenal, Tottenham, Manchester City and Aston Villa.
On current form, though, one win would be a stirring reversal for any of these teams. Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United all enjoyed their last win in matchweek 33 (there’s that number again). Since none of these teams play each other in the remaining games, nor do they play Liverpool or Manchester City, and since the three teams to be relegated are already set, the struggling quartet face opponents who have nothing to play for but pride and perhaps spite.
The spite could be the more powerful motivator, certainly the more interesting one. Arsenal face Burnley and Manchester United visit Cardiff City on the last day of the season.
Sean Dyche and Neil Warnock are the two most irascible managers in the Premier League, and Warnock will be back in the Championship next season. Neither of these managers would ever be out-motivated or willing to go through the motions against the country club, silver spoon, pampered princes of the top of the table. Warnock, in particular, seems quite determined to scorch and salt the earth on his way out.
This week, though, these two teams have much easier opponents. United face long-relegated Huddersfield and Arsenal host Brighton, who are sighing the relief of survival.
Tottenham face Everton on the final day, in what could rightly be dubbed the Banter Derby. But say what you want about Everton: in the last three matchweeks they have picked up more points than Chelsea and their three closest rivals combined.
The final race for the Champions League should be well-balanced. None of the teams are playing anyone particularly strong or motivated. But that has not been an impediment to these teams dropping points over the last few weeks. Rather than a battle to the final whistle next Sunday, it may simply be a case of who is still standing when the music stops.
Chelsea have looked like anything but a Champions League-worthy team for most of this season. But because the other teams around them are doing the same, the Blues still could qualify for next year’s tournament, and could even finish third.
The real question is will people look back and call this an “easy season” for the Premier League. If a team playing like Chelsea are playing could finish third – no matter how far removed that finish is from second place – something must be truly rotten with their peers. Or is that logic only applied to when the Blues win it all?
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