Chelsea overcame a lot this season and, with the help of their three closest frenemies, could finish third in the Premier League. This is about what they can expect for next season.
Maurizio Sarri let his penchant for blunt honesty once again steer him towards demotivating his team and the fans two weeks ago. Speaking before the Manchester United game, Sarri said “[T]his one is the third season of Guardiola at City, and the fourth of Klopp at Liverpool. So it’s a long way. But in one or two seasons, we have to recover the gap.” That is, Sarri said Chelsea will finish third for at least one more season.
Aside from the self-fulfilling effect managers’ words can have on their team (cf: Pochettino, Mauricio, re: trophies), Sarri is correct given Chelsea’s trajectory this season.
The muted celebrations of Chelsea’s Champions League qualification in these parts had several roots. First, even with the incredible, historic season Manchester City and Liverpool are having, it just doesn’t feel right to be satisfied or relieved to finish third. We’re Chelsea fans. We’re spoiled and entitled, and many of us like it that way since it’s all many of us have ever known
Second, Chelsea really were the best of the worst of the best. The teams in places 3rd – 6th will finish with the worst combined record over the last five matchweeks in Premier League history. The Blues were the best in a year with an historically low bar.
Finally, Chelsea showed so little progress over the course of the season. Qualifying for the Champions League seems like an anomaly that will be corrected at the group stages of next year’s competition. Domestically, the Blues do not appear to be much better off than they were in the early stages of the season. Once Maurizio Sarri taught the players his circuits, there was not much more improvement. The Premier League only needed a few weeks to figure out that, yes, this was a conventional 4-3-3 with a one-dimensional r*****a at the base of midfield. Because this formation is so literally “textbook,” every team had a plan to counter it within a month.
Chelsea’s saving grace was Eden Hazard’s ability to transcend textbook formations and overcome any opponent’s defence in the course of his career-best season. But he may be gone next season, leaving Chelsea already at their ceiling.
Barring 7-8 new players arriving in the summer, each of whom would have to be near Eden Hazard’s ability to impact the game, Chelsea will not be much better in next season than they are now. Unless he has been keeping something in reserve for the last four years, Maurizio Sarri does not have much more for them. The Blues’ best hope is to continue overwhelming teams with their quality and organization when they are about to lose some of their most important players for those elements.
The only thing more unlikely than the late-season slump of Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester United is the possibility of them all not improving next season. At least one of them will be better off, whether that comes through the transfer market, a new manager or improvements via their current personnel.
Likewise, at least one of Liverpool and Manchester City will maintain their level from this season. Both may, and one may decline a bit. It’s quite terrifying to think about one of them improving, and it’s highly improbable one would fall out of title contention.
With at least one team staying ahead of Chelsea and at least one of the teams within five points of Chelsea improving, the best Chelsea can hope to finish next season on their current path is third. Maurizio Sarri’s comments last month, though, implied both Liverpool and Manchester City would stay ahead of Chelsea. That spots the Blues back to fourth place, unless they muster a marginal gain to stay ahead of their pursuers.
Chelsea should not take lightly wrapping up a season in third place and already preparing for another third place finish next season. That is a lot of up-front investment and patience to rest on the uncertainty of a manager’s third season.