Chelsea enters into 2019/2020 with a transfer ban and with a new manager. What are the expectations for the coming season with the other variables active?
What is and what is not an achievement changes as the season goes on. For instance, making top four was seen by many as overachieving last season, despite many predicting Chelsea would be there when the season started. Those expectations changed because of how awful Chelsea was at times during the winter. The bar was moved.
But that does not mean expectations cannot be set before a season starts. Chelsea is normally a club that should have a “Champions League or bust mentality”. Antonio Conte may have been a Premier League winner who got no support in the following season, but no Champions League is no Champions League. That does not mean that making Champions League alone is enough to make a season “good” and acceptable, but the alternative is unacceptable in almost any circumstance.
The “almost” comes when outside factors change the equation. This summer, it is the transfer ban. It is also having a new, inexperienced manager to hit hard reset on Stamford Bridge. So what are the expectations going into 2019/2020? What is the point of no return?
The Chicken Littles will proclaim that Chelsea will be lucky to make the top half of the table. That is frankly ridiculous. Even with a transfer ban and the loss of Eden Hazard, Chelsea is firmly a top six club. The gap from sixth to seventh last year was nine points. It was nine points the year before that and eight the year before that. While that is not a sizable gulf, it would take something unique from one of the usual top half contenders to change it.
So if Chelsea is more or less assured a top six spot simply due to squad quality, is that the acceptable limit? Without transfers, yes that is most likely fine for the Premier League. Last season, Chelsea limped and lucked their way into top four while being dour to watch at times. So long as a feel good factor is there (and yes, that is important to a manager keeping their job when times are tough), then sixth or better is acceptable. Fourth or better would be excellent (and quite doable).
But there is also the matter of the Champions League. That is much harder to predict without knowing the group Chelsea lands in. It could just as easily be a group of life as a group of death.
If Chelsea does get an easy group, advancement will be needed. A group of death will still require some competitiveness. And though falling into the Europa League costed Roberto Di Matteo his job, it is unlikely to do so this season given the ban.
But realistically, bar a total collapse, Frank Lampard is going to be given the full season. Chelsea stuck by Jose Mourinho into the relegation battle. Conte was trusted even when he and the board fell out and top four was in jeopardy. Maurizio Sarri was kept after two historic losses and a shrug of his shoulders. Despite the past, Chelsea simply is not a club that fires easily anymore.
There are other factors besides performance to consider such as style of play and youth integration. Those may seem superficial but one only needs to look at Sarri’s year to see how important they can be to the fans.
So what are the expectations for Lampard’s first season? Top six and a good showing in the Champions League, but failing at either should not be sackable given the current variables in play. The youth need to be given minutes and the style of play needs to be enjoyable to watch as well as adaptable when things are going sour.
Lampard will be given time to succeed, so long as the fans do not start expecting miracles from the off. If Chelsea was ever going to have a reset and rebuild season, this would be it. Temper expectations, keep them realistic, and enjoy the ride.