Manchester United and Arsenal showed just how listless turmoil can be as the two clubs put on a dreary midtable fixture befitting the Manchester weather. If Chelsea want to finish in the top four, it’s completely within their power.
Chelsea won the 2016/17 Premier League title in a year in which the top six was weaker than ever. Last season they finished in the top four not on their own showing, but because of the collapse of Arsenal and Manchester United. Or at least that’s what we’ve heard time and again.
Alternatively, Chelsea are uniquely capable of exploiting any weakness amongst their rivals at the top of the table, punishing any slip-ups (see: Gerrard, Steven), bottle jobs (see: Bridge, Battle of the) or the growing pains of a manager who came into a club on a wave of a mere £300 million of bespoke investment (see: Guardiola, Josep “Pep”), regardless of whether the Blues are competing for the title, Champions League qualification or just bragging rights. Buried deep in the mentality Jose Mourinho instilled in the club is the recognition that you don’t need to beat the all-time greatest teams every season, simply those other teams who are in the league with you at any given time.
Seven games into the 2019/20 season, some of these familiar contours are taking shape. Liverpool and Manchester City are seemingly untouchable in their duel for the title.
The remaining two Champions League spots are open for the remaining four top-six teams. A few plucky challengers have a reasonable chance of reaching the Europa League, but would be foolish not to aim for those Champions League places.
Finishing in the top four is almost always the bare minimum expectation for the club, but all the circumstances around this season gave Frank Lampard as much dispensation as any manager can have for this requirement. Whereas a Europa League berth is often considered justification for a sacking, the transfer ban, his newness on the job, his status with the club, the loss of Eden Hazard and the fallout from last season would combine to be just enough for a bit of wiggle room.
Based on Manchester United’s 1-1 draw with Arsenal on Monday, though, Chelsea can march confidently towards those Champions League spots. While it would be unfair to shift the expectations for Lampard and revoke that leeway, a top-four finish is as attainable as ever.
Neither team at Old Trafford on Monday showed the ambition, confidence or coherence necessary for a top-four finish. The rain can make the run of play sloppy and the experience unpleasant, but it alone cannot prevent forwards from putting their boot through their shots; from measuring their tackles to avoid silly or dangerous fouls; or from tracking back to defend.
Arsenal conceded when they completely shut off after taking a corner, allowing Manchester United to counter-attack in numbers. Manchester United conceded when the defenders and David de Gea played the flag and not the whistle on an only-in-England officiating error. And around those two events, both teams shut off when Jesse Lingard played a corner kick short into the box – the sort of quick-thinking ambush play Chelsea and Liverpool have both employed in recent years.
Those are not top four, and maybe not even top six, behaviours.
Just as Chelsea have seemed to play better than their results suggest, Manchester United and Arsenal have been playing worse. Whatever their expected goals for and assists statistics, their expected results based on just watching them shows they are moving in the opposite direction from Chelsea at the club and team level, which means they will soon be moving in the opposite direction in the table.
Early days, to be sure. Leicester City is in third place, after all, and West Ham in fifth – plenty will change. But neither of those teams, nor Bournemouth or even Wolves, should be written out just because there are only the Top Six teams for the top six places. Confidence is a powerful drug, even the delusionary confidence of Chelsea legend and Leicester City coach Brendan Rodgers. Leicester City saw two good reasons on Monday night to think they may just be going back to Europe next season.
Chelsea’s confidence can be more measured and realistic. They have been in this place time and again. This is the value of a club with a winning culture and winning mentality. Even with so many young, new players, the club as an institution knows how to do this, not to mention the senior players and the manager.
If Chelsea exceed expectations and finish in the top four this year, the asterisk merchants will try to attach caveats to the accomplishment: but Ole and United, but Mauricio and Spurs, but David Luiz and Arsenal.
It would be typical of the pace of the Premier League that, within a few months, a first-year manager and a squad of barely-tested youth would go from being a punchline to the opportunistic flat-track bullies. If the other clubs want to make it easy for Chelsea, absolutely no reason for the Blues to return the favour.