Chelsea have been leaving a lot of space between their defensive and midfield lines, often having only Jorginho cover this area. Burnley will present some new challenges for how the Blues handle this.
Chelsea have been trying to figure out what to do with the space between their midfield and defensive lines. Do they stash Jorginho back there as a token gesture of covering the centrebacks? Do they leave it open, letting Jorginho push up towards the attacking or pressing midfielders and hope the centrebacks can pinch up as necessary to stop a counter from developing? Or, as against Newcastle, do they move one or both centrebacks so far forward that the space ends up being between them and Kepa Arrizabalaga, 60 yards caudally?
Jorginho was the main swing player in how Chelsea arranged their blocks against Ajax. Particularly in the early and late stages of the game, Jorginho joined the four forwards to give Chelsea two blocks of five players, with a decent amount of space in between.
Ajax understandably did their best to play vertically from the back, hitting Dusan Tadic and their own attacking midfielders in that space. By leaving the press to the forwards, Jorginho put Chelsea in more of a 4-1-4-1 formation while pressing and transitioning to defence, at least nominally taking away the direct route up the centre. The Blues’ response and then their return to the more aggressive structure matched the game state well – start and finish on the front foot, maintain an even keel in between.
Burnley have the second-lowest possession percentage in the Premier League, ahead of only Newcastle. Unlike Newcastle, though, Burnley still have some solid offensive capabilities.
Burnley are in eighth place in the league and have the ninth-most goals: 12, the same as the much more highly-rated Wolves. Newcastle, by contrast, have five – several fewer than Tammy Abraham, and only one more than Mason Mount. The Clarets have two players with four goals each: Ashley Barnes and Chris Wood.
Burnley will match expectations by sitting deep and defending for long periods. But Chelsea cannot be fooled into thinking that is the extent of Burnley’s gameplan, particularly at Turf Moor. Sean Dyche, Barnes and Wood would like nothing more than for Chelsea to bring eight men into the final third and then encourage either or both of the centrebacks to push up on the play and stay there with the others.
The Blues will need to maintain an actual midfield line between their defensive line and the core of their attacking play, even if that midfield line is simply Jorginho. If he drops a bit deeper into this space he may be even more effective as a passer by offering a better angle for cycling the ball, and to find a wider variety of passes to both sides. He may want to push up to keep his passes shorter and quicker, but this would be an unwise trade-off in pass selection and defensive coverage.
The centrebacks will have to play a vocal role in this space management. They are the only ones who can see the entire play at all times. If they see Jorginho – or if one centreback sees the other – pushing and staying too high on attack, they need to call him back into place or direct Cesar Azpilicueta or Mateo Kovacic to cover.
This applies to when Chelsea are pressing and transitioning to defence as well as maintaining the attack.
If Chelsea bring Jorginho into the press and have two blocks of five they will be leaving an avenue wide open for a trademark Burnley long ball towards Barnes or Wood. Not that Jorginho is going to win any aerial duels against even Burnley’s shortest, weakest players (as if Dyche would ever permit such a thing), but he can recover the second ball after one of Chelsea’s centrebacks knocks down the long ball.
Burnley hew to the most effective way to beat the press, something more clubs – including Chelsea – should do: lump it long. The Blues will need at least one of Jorginho and Kovacic to come off the press and protect against the long balls, especially since Burnley will have no intention of playing deftly out from the back.
Chelsea are coming off of 1-0 wins under very different circumstances in their last two games. Despite the mystique around Burnley, especially at Turf Moor, Chelsea have scored multiple goals against the Clarets in all but two games since 1973. The two times Chelsea scored a single goal were both 1-1 draws, both in seasons where Chelsea went on to win the Premier League.
A 1-0 win at Turf Moor will be another significant accomplishment for Frank Lampard and his men. A more goal-laden win will obviously be even better, and in keeping with recent trends. And a 1-1 draw may just be the most random auspicious sign we could dig up on TransferMarkt.
But first, Chelsea need to figure out how they are going to cover the space between their lines.