Chelsea: Antonio Rudiger will have a safe and incremental return to the XI

Frank Lampard dispelled rumours that Antonio Rudiger was ready to rejoin the Chelsea lineup. Even when Rudiger is ready, he – like the rest of the recovering Blues – will have a controlled, incremental path to the XI.

Since Chelsea are playing Watford today, it’s a great time to talk about injuries, recovery and return to play. The last match against Watford was one of the most consequential games of 2019. The game was just shy of absolutely meaningless in terms of the Blues finishing in the top four last season, but that was the game which set N’Golo Kante into an injury spiral from which neither he nor Chelsea have fully recovered.

Some enterprising click merchants interpreted a social media post from Antonio Rudiger to mean he was fully recovered and ready to take on Watford. Some of Chelsea’s very important Twitter influencers ran with the story, leading someone to ask Frank Lampard about it at his press conference on Friday. Lampard cited a “miscommunication” and said that not only would Rudiger not be playing on Saturday, but the German will meet with another specialist on Monday to address an ongoing groin issue.

Rudiger, then, is sometime away from a competitive appearance. Even if his social media post meant that he was fully fit, the idea that he would stroll right back into the matchday squad – let alone the starting XI – is unsupported by any of Frank Lampard’s patterns this season, to say nothing of good sports medicine practice.

Rudiger has not played since the first half against Wolves on September 14. His previous two appearances this season were in the Premier League 2, where he played two complete games as he built up his fitness and match readiness from his previous injury to his anterior cruciate ligament.

Rudiger’s eventual return will take a similar path. Like many other players of the last few seasons coming back from prolonged injury, he will probably play several games with the Development Team before rejoining the first team.

His first appearances with the first team may be off the bench, or may be just for the first half. Coaches normally do not want to mess with the rapport and stability of their defensive unit through unforced substitutions, but this would be one of the scenarios that justifies an exception. A possible variant would be bringing Rudiger on or off as part of a tactical substitution to or a from a three-man backline. As much as possible those appearances would come in games with a lot of flexibility, such as cup ties (no longer an option), Champions League dead rubbers (maybe) or Premier League opponents like Watford. But starting in the Premier League in the first game back would not happen, not even against Watford.

Lampard’s handling of Reece James’ and Callum Hudson-Odoi’s return to play is the template he will follow with Antonio Rudiger, N’Golo Kante and Ruben Loftus-Cheek. The youngsters’ gradual progression into the team has as much to do with their recovery status and maintaining a controlled, safe, checkpoint-by-check-point return-to-play as it does their age and experience.

When those three senior players are ready for competitive action, the first we see of them will not be in a Premier League starting XI. They will show up a bit here and a bit there for several weeks before going 90 minutes.

And even once they reach that stage, they will not be doing it every game. Before a player is ready to play 90 minutes twice a week he needs to show he can handle playing 90 minutes once a week for at least two weeks in a row. Their playing minutes will continue undulating even after they make it to the starting XI. Only then, after all that, will the competition for that place in the lineup start with the players currently holding their position.

Chelsea fans have different reasons and preferences for wanting to see Antonio Rudiger, N’Golo Kante and Ruben Loftus-Cheek in the lineup. Perhaps one of those three is their favourite player, or maybe they hope he’ll knock their least favourite player out of the lineup.

Regardless of what change you hope to see in the starting XI, it is some time off. And even when it happens, a semi-permanent change will still be a few weeks away. As it should be.

Games against Watford should be a periodic reminder that no matter how much you like a player or think he is essential, playing him a less than full fitness risks losing him for months or more. Last May’s fixture cost Chelsea N’Golo Kante. Let’s be happy this edition won’t come at the expense of Antonio Rudiger.