The Court of Arbitration for Sport will hear Chelsea’s appeal of their transfer ban on November 20. The outcome of the appeal should have little influence on the Blues’ January transfer window.
Chelsea declined to appeal their transfer ban in the summer, shrewdly facilitating Maurizio Sarri’s departure. Frank Lampard has built and trained a squad that does not have many noticeable deficiencies, and those that are apparent will mostly be resolved once a few players make their way from the physio room to the training pitch. The Blues’ season will likely turn out about the same whether or not they can buy someone new in January.
The outcome of the transfer ban appeal will be only one of several contingencies feeding into the decision to buy. Given the strength of the club in its current state and the premium pricing for players in January, the Blues will be working off of a very short list. They will not be looking to add depth or utility players to back up the current regulars: they have the academy for that, if they really need it.
Anyone the Blues sign will either be able to have an immediate impact, or will be judged to have the potential to develop quickly into a world-class player.
A mid-value, high potential transfer could use the second half of the season to bed into the side while expectations and pressures around the club are low. Lampard could take such a player and ease him into the Premier League and Chelsea FC, taking advantage of the light stakes for this season. Then, next season, he would be ready to lead the regular XI. This is the approach Liverpool took with Virgil van Dijk.
Chelsea will also not want to bring in a new player unless one of their current fringe players leaves in January. Olivier Giroud and Pedro have had only nominal involvements this season, and both are linked with a move away. If Chelsea were to pursue Timo Werner or another striker, they may wait until Giroud is gone.
Likewise, the Blues would have to move out either Marcos Alonso or Emerson before signing Ben Chilwell.
Obviously the Blues would also need to find a target at a club willing to sell, and then be willing to pay the inflated value that usually goes along with a January deal. Neither Leicester nor RB Leipzig will part with Ben Chilwell or Timo Werner, respectively, given their clubs’ ambitions for the season. Whatever Chelsea could pay would not be worth jeopardizing Leicester’s quest for the top four and an actual title race for RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga.
Regardless of the appeal, if Chelsea are eager to strengthen their squad they could turn to RB Leipzig and recall Ethan Ampadu. Ampadu has played only 56 minutes this season, partly due to injury but mostly due to Julian Nagelsmann using a two-centreback formation much more frequently than anyone would have expected.
Ampadu would help cover Chelsea’s injury issues at centreback and defensive midfielder. He could fill in as needed for either position and provide a useful option in case anything else befalls N’Golo Kante this season. With Ampadu’s luck, he’d arrive in January and the Blues would go on a five month streak of perfect team health.
Chelsea have the money to spend but they also have a squad that gives the time to decide when to spend it. A win at the CAS might validate the club on principle, but it should not open the doors to any significant January activity.