Odds and line for Man City vs. Chelsea show how close these teams are

Manchester City are one point behind Chelsea in the Premier League table, but have a +12 advantage on goal differential. Points matter most overall, and that closeness is reflected in the over / under for this match.

With another international break behind us, the fixture list is packed and will be until the new year. Chelsea are faced with a tall task against Manchester City, who are undoubtedly trying to catch back up to Liverpool as fast as possible. Chelsea have their own aspirations, and I’m not sure they expected to be above City on the table after 12 weeks of the season.

But City haven’t been the same team as their past two, title-winning seasons. They have already lost three matches this season – they lost six total in their last two seasons. They are vulnerable, and the line from The Action Network reflects it. Chelsea are +550 on the money line, with City sporting a cool -230.

Both The Action Network and the betting public are expecting a win for Manchester City, but the spread and total goals scored points towards a close match.

The spread for this meeting at the Etihad Stadium is in favor of Manchester City, who are currently a little over a goal favorite (-1.25), which is no surprise. But the over / under is at 3.5 total goals scored, with the under taking more action. That is a bit surprising considering Chelsea’s struggles with keeping a clean sheet against anyone, and City only getting clean sheets against teams in the bottom half of the table.

Manchester City lost their last match, which was against Liverpool. Pep Guardiola will definitely have his team ready to play and will likely start fast. Chelsea have to be ready at the very least to absorb some of the pressure until they can work themselves into the match.

It would be easy to say this match is going to be explosive with goals galore, but I just can’t see that. Guardiola will want three points without a doubt, but they won’t want to the risk giving up three goals again. For a team that has won so much and has had many years under Guardiola, they were oddly naive against Liverpool, opening up across the pitch against a team that is build precisely to punish such mistakes.

On the Blue side, Frank Lampard will not enter this match without taking City’s pace and talent up top into consideration. He will have his team braced and ready to slow City down as they come through midfield and then block their attempts to pass the ball into Kepa Arrizabalaga’s box.

Going off the numbers mentioned above, this match is pointing towards a Manchester City 2-1 victory.

The Blues would certainly be happy with a draw, but this may be their best chance since Antonio Conte’s first season to sneak out a victory away against big bad City. I would take Chelsea +1.25 and the under on 3.5 goals scored.