Chelsea’s away form, recent run push the odds for a Blues win at Valencia

Chelsea have won points from every Champions League match since Frank Lampard’s managerial debut in Europe. They face Valencia in a win-and-you’re-in scenario.

Chelsea is back in action for one of my favorite nights, a Champions League Wednesday (Tuesdays are good, too). Valencia took the first meeting at Stamford Bridge in a 1-0 victory with Rodrigo heading the only goal home for the visiting squad. But Chelsea aren’t the same team now as they were in September, and the odds on The Action Network tell us so.

Chelsea are slight favorites currently at -0.5 goals and +107 on the money line. Valencia at home is +265, which is only seven points over the +272 number for the match to end in a draw.

The fact that Chelsea has better odds to win than Valencia, the home squad, reflects the public respecting Chelsea’s current form and the Blues’ better record on the road. The +107 will likely drop as kick-off approaches since the spread has already gone from -0.25 to -0.50, which is caused by more money being placed on Chelsea.

The over / under for the match is 3 at this time, with the under taking the bulk of the betting.

Valencia has been decent at home this season, earning 16 points of a possible 27 in nine home matches in all competitions.

The problem for Valencia is that Chelsea are a different team when playing on the road. Of a possible 27 points from nine matches on the road (not including Super Cup) this season, Chelsea has earned 21 points. Chelsea’s only clean sheet on the road came against Ajax. It’s simply hard to explain why Chelsea are so tough to handle on the road, but whatever Lampard has been doing for the away games, he looks likely to do it again today.

Any time a team’s odds are about equal to that of the draw, I would take the draw before the took the team. But this match is all about Chelsea. With their away record and recent form it’s hard to envision anything but a win.

There will be three goals in the match, so the over / under is out of play in my opinion, but I would lean towards the under. Champions League matches are normally going to be lower scoring affairs compared to a league match. Then again, I did predict 2-1 for the game at Stamford Bridge against Ajax, and we know how that turned out.

Even so, I still like Chelsea to win 2-1 at Valencia. I know, its a boring old scoreline, but it’s boring and old because of how often a 2-1 result occurs.