While Chelsea are now free to think about who they want to buy next month, Everton are trying to decide who they want coaching for, well, however long they care to keep anyone around these days. The potential of a new manager bounce is not moving the odds very dramatically.
It’s been a bit of a week for both Everton and Chelsea fans, but for opposite reasons. Everton is sad and down because they have sacked yet another manager. But this one wasn’t some old English dude that’s made his rounds before, this was one the owner of Everton went out of his way to get. Chelsea fans are ecstatic because the transfer ban was lifted, so now every fan gets to play hypothetical owner and list all the players they want to buy, because those tweets never get old.
Normally in a match with this scenario, I would be very concerned with a new manager bounce. But with Everton so clearly dysfunctional at the moment, I just can’t see them putting it all together under such pressure.
Looking at the odds on The Action Network, the betting public is split on what they think is going to occur. The spread is currently -.5 goal for Chelsea at -101. If you were to take Everton at plus a half, you’d get those odds at -114. So more bettors are placing money on Everton getting the half-point then Chelsea to cover said half.
The money line for Chelsea to win straight up is +103, which is down from +100 earlier in the week. The fact it’s coming down and teetering with the minus side shows me that the public is split, or perhaps unsure. Some are betting the .5 goal in hopes it ends in a draw or Everton somehow have a bounce and perk up. The rest are thinking Chelsea on the road are going to dismantle the dumpster fire that is Everton this season.
The over / under for today’s match is sitting at 2.75 total goals. All of Chelsea’s away matches have gone over that in the Premier League this season, and the Blues won all but one of those away matches (Manchester City). Only two of Everton’s seven home matches have covered that total.
On one side, Chelsea is a scoring machine on the road. On the other, while Everton tends not to allow many goals at home, they also don’t win there, either.
I like a 2-0 win from Chelsea, who will be too much for the leaderless Everton. The best chance I give Everton is a 1-1 draw. If they decide they want to show up and put forth the effort to get something from this match for their interim, then maybe. But both the numbers and momentum of these teams point towards Chelsea getting a decisive win.
Frank Lampard mentioned in his press conference that the ban being lifted makes the players sit up and put in a little more effort to make sure they aren’t the ones being replaced. Everton is their first opportunity to do just that, and we can expect they will.