Chelsea vs. Bournemouth odds: Take the under, hope for a clean sheet

Chelsea have a month to focus on the Premier League, starting with the unfortunate Bournemouth coming to Stamford Bridge. Nothing says Chelsea like a low-scoring December affair.

Well, the Blues are through to the knockout round of Champions League. Juventus, here we come, that is, if the completely blind and impartial draw turns out that way, of course. After arguably the biggest win and performance of the season, it’s vital Chelsea avoids a letdown game. Bournemouth has trap match written all over it.

Chelsea is coming off a Champions League win, which is always a worry because of the amount of effort and emotion expended on those nights. Bournemouth has lost their last five and won just one of their last 10 Premier League matches. It would be easy to see why Bournemouth could be overlooked, especially with Tottenham and Jose Mourinho on the card after that.

Normally, my model for analyzing matches starts with looking at all the matches played at home by the home team, and then the same for the road team. Then I do the same for goals scored, goals allowed, and goal differential for the respective teams.

The Cherries have two wins in eight road matches this season. Chelsea at home has been inconsistent, winning four of eight Premier League matches, scoring six goals total. But the kicker is they have three clean sheets in those four wins at home, all coming against teams 10th or worse.

The Blues only have four clean sheets in all competitions this season, the fourth being the 1-0 win away to Ajax in the Champions League. Plus, Bournemouth has been held scoreless for the last two matches, the first by Crystal Palace in a 1-0 defeat. The last outing was against Liverpool, where they were blanked 3-0. I think it’s reasonable to say Chelsea are between the two.

The over / under on total goals is 2.75 for this meeting, with the majority of bets going on the under. Chelsea is understandably heavy favorites at -417, and Bournemouth +1158.

I am not convinced Bournemouth can score in this match, which is why the under is as low as it is. Bournemouth are on the ropes and they won’t get off them against Chelsea. The Blues will be too much for the injury-stricken Cherries.

In his press conference before the match, Frank Lampard stressed the importance of not overlooking Bournemouth, and highlighted the losses against West Ham and Everton as examples. He also mentioned Chelsea needs to put their opponents and these matches away when they have the chance.

The defense will be the key as the Blues handle their business with a 2-0 victory with Tammy Abraham leading the way, piling the pressure on Cherries’ skipper Eddie Howe, as he sinks closer to the relegation line.