Chelsea has drawn Bayern Munich in the round of 16. It is the best draw on paper but much could change in the next two months.
Chelsea winning the Champions League in 2012 was not a matter of tactics. It was not even a matter of quality. It was simply belief. The right decisions at the right moments with the necessary motivation saw Chelsea overcome the deficit against Napoli. It saw the Blues defeat the “greatest team the world has ever known” in Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona. And it was all that was needed to go into Bayern Munich’s own stadium and win against all odds.
That was a long time ago now. Chelsea’s intervening seven years has seen the club in a stop start fit that has eventually landed them about where they started; with a former player at the helm and a certain Chelseainess in the side. Bayern Munich used that loss to turn into a monster the next season in route to a treble. The remaining time they swept aside all opponents domestically and have only recently started to fade in their native Germany.
Drawing Bayern is not the most narratively exciting match up but it is arguably the easiest on paper. But that is now and the first match is not for another two months. Bayern, even somewhat jaded as they are at the moment, could easily become a juggernaut by that point. Then again, so could Chelsea.
Bayern being the easiest draw is not a sign that they are the most beatable. On the contrary; any opponent Chelsea could have drawn would have been difficult. Paris Saint Germain may waltz through their league domestically and are always good to choke at some point, but they would have been formidable. Juventus has yet to truly kick off with Maurizio Sarri but they are nearly undefeated this season. Barcelona and Leipzig top their respective leagues for good reason. Bayern, meanwhile, sit fifth in their league. League position wise, they are the only side comparable to the Blues currently.
But all of that is true now. The first leg would not be for another two months. For Chelsea, that would be roughly nine league games, however many FA Cup games, and a “winter break”. For Bayern, it would be about eight league games but also a legitimate winter break. Add in the fact that Bayern could end up with a permanent manager by then and Chelsea could go on a spending spree, and this match up could be something totally different by the time the first ball is kicked.
Simply put, the round of 16 (and all the Champions League knockout rounds) is a bit of a roll of the dice. So much of advancing is about getting the right opponent at the right time who use the right tactic to be taken advantage of. While that seems to be the case now with Bayern, it is hard to tell what it will look like then. Chelsea has a lot of miles to go before they can really start thinking about it.
On paper, it is a good match up. It is just very far away to say that it will be good in two months too.