Because the Premier League is weird, Chelsea faces Southampton a second time before the halfway point. The Saints are much stronger than they were though.
Southampton has been far more patient than their fellow relegation battlers when it has come to their manager. Of course, hiring Ralph Hasenhuttl was a coup and he is easily the best manager (on paper) in the bottom half.
It has taken time, but his Southampton side has slowly molded itself into a side that not only plays his way, but wins his way. They are still a long ways from safety or going full gegenpress, but they are much closer than they were back when Chelsea defeated them 4-1 in October.
Given Boxing Day’s place in a congested schedule, it is hard to tell what to expect from this match. Both Chelsea and Southampton want to press and play high octane, aggressive football. The two sides may not be able to maintain that intensity throughout, but when they do the match is sure to be electric.
For a long time, Hasenhuttl tried to make a 3-5-2 shape work. More and more this season he has returned to a back four and lately he has landed on a 4-4-2 shape that looks a lot like a 4-2-2-2 at times. 4-3-3 is basically how he got the RB Leipzig job and 4-2-2-2 is how he succeeded there, so the change in formation is not overly surprising.
Offensively, they attempt to do a lot of things Chelsea often does. Hasenhuttl came through his coaching badges at roughly the same time as Jurgen Klopp and the latter has been a clear inspiration for Frank Lampard. With the ball, they look to play direct to the striker who will then flick the ball on to a winger tucking in or a midfielder. The plan is for this to catch the opponent before they can set up defensively.
Defensively, they use well timed presses to push the opponent to the flanks. Once there, they really turn on the press as multiple players rush the ball carrier. Either the ball is won through that action or the player with the ball is forced into a risky pass that the Saints will then press as well.
Their biggest strength is catching opponents unprepared. They have gotten much better at controlling those moments and recent weeks have seen their results improve as teams struggle to deal with their intensity.
On the same notion, their weakness is the quality of the players. The players they have had are better than they were, but they are still limited by their ability. That leads to a lot of issues at times when any single individual struggles. It takes just one bad day for one player for the entire set up to collapse.
Again, however, Boxing Day can be weird. Chelsea will have one eye on Arsenal before New Year’s and Southampton may prefer to save their players for Crystal Palace even sooner than that. So long as Chelsea maintains their composure, it should be another routine win but nothing should be assumed against a Hasenhuttl side.