Chelsea: Next time try spending £26MM to raise the ceiling, not sack staff

Chelsea paid over £26 million in compensation and legal costs for Antonio Conte and his backroom staff when they sacked them all in the summer of 2018. That’s about as much as Chelsea paid for each of the new players that never moved the needle for Conte’s side.

Twenty-six million pounds does not buy you much in today’s transfer market, but in 2018 it could buy you either Emerson or Davide Zappacosta, with some money left over; or most of Danny Drinkwater, Antonio Rudiger or Tiemoue Bakayoko. Along with Alvaro Morata, those are the players Chelsea bought Antonio Conte before his second season. Those players – Emerson, Zappacosta, Drinkwater, Rudiger, Bakayoko – each cost about as much as the end result they inadvertently contributed to: the early termination of Antonio Conte’s contract, along with that of his staff.

Players set the ceiling for the team’s performance. The best managers train, motivate and organize their team to get them as close in reality to their theoretical ceiling. A manager may be able to raise an individual player’s level a bit, but that is negligible compared to how much the manager can swing the team’s performance below that maximum level.

Antonio Conte took Chelsea’s 2016/17 squad as close to their ceiling as any manager could. His genius was two-fold: recognizing their potential for a system of football that completely overwhelmed the Premier League.

By the end of the season, the team was still performing near their best possible level, but the rest of the league was starting to figure out how to counteract it. Antonio Conte knew that his Blues had nowhere to go but down, at least in relative terms. He had taken them to their highest possible level, and the rest of the Premier League was figuring out how to beat it.

The only hope Conte had for the 2017/18 was new players who would reset Chelsea’s ceiling at a higher level. With the players he had, no matter how well the Blues performed, they were at their ceiling. Had he only taken them to 80% or 90% in his first season, there would still be room for improvement. But he committed the curse of early overachievement and took them straight to 100%. He left himself at the mercy of the board to give him new players with whom he could reach a higher 100%.

The closest thing he received to such a player was Alvaro Morata. Morata and Conte had spoken very highly of each other from when they crossed paths at Juventus, and they seemed eager to work with each other.

For the first half of the season, Morata looked like a player who could give Chelsea room to grow. We should not forget how well he started at Stamford Bridge. But the realities of the Premier League took a sharp toll on Morata and, by extension, Antonio Conte’s ability to enhance his Blues.

None of the other players had that potential to raise Chelsea’s ceiling. They are all good players to various extents and could have been useful in different ways to Conte’s side. But none of them were going to make Chelsea’s 100% level for 2017/18 any higher than their 100% level from 2016/17. The best Chelsea could do was maintain their level in absolute terms, which means falling behind their competition in relative terms.

Antonio Conte knew this. He knew this when the transfer window closed in August. He knew it when the next window closed in January. Conte knew that Chelsea’s transfers did not raise their ceiling, and that even if he kept them as close to that theoretical maximum as possible they were not going to achieve what they did in the first season.

And he was right. They didn’t.

Chelsea seemed to have learned some lessons from the experience over the course of 2018. No, not the value of a manager. They didn’t learn that until the summer of 2019.

When they hired Maurizio Sarri, they made two top line transfers: a goalkeeper who has the potential to raise Chelsea’s ceiling, and an outfield player who mollified the incoming manager.

Antonio Conte’s current club, though, did both: they bought Romelu Lukaku, a marquee player who Antonio Conte had wanted since his time at Chelsea. They also made a loan-to-own deal with Cagliari for Nicolo Barrella, who was also linked to Chelsea under Maurizio Sarri (perhaps at the expense of N’Golo Kante). Inter are linked with Christian Eriksen, Marcos Alonso and Olivier Giroud this window. Eriksen and Alonso can raise the ceiling, and Alonso and Giroud are among Conte’s preferences.

Cesc Fabregas said this morning that Conte “is probably the best coach around at reviving teams and [creating] a quick new identity.” That is what Conte is doing now at Inter Milan, just as he did at Chelsea. He is raising their level so it is as close to possible to their theoretical ceiling. As a result, Inter lead Serie A.

The test for Inter Milan will be next summer. Other teams (mainly Juventus) will close the gap to Inter. Inter will need new players to give Conte a higher 100% level to approach.

That test for Chelsea starts this month and will continue for the next few windows. No matter what Frank Lampard does, he will be constrained by his players. It may take him a few years as a manager to get any side close to their ceiling, but if the board do not give him a high enough theoretical level, whatever he does will not be enough for the club’s goals.

The board ignored Conte and fans decried him when he said he needed better players. Then those same fans said Maurizio Sarri and Frank Lampard need better players.

Let’s hope Lampard does not take the fall for doing the most he can with the squad he has. It would cost Chelsea a lot to sack Lampard, financially and otherwise. They have much better ways to spend their money and their good will.